Bitcoin: Bullish bets persist as buyers become scarce

Leveraged traders continue to bet on a bitcoin rebound despite weak spot buying. This divergence could amplify a further fall below $80,000, as many long positions would then be exposed to forced closures.

Traders remain optimistic despite spot sales

The perpetual futures market shows that bullish bets remain strong. According to Glassnode’s weekly report published on October 19, payouts from long positions increased by 49.4%, from $1.1 million to $1.6 million.

These fees, called funding rates, help keep the price of perpetual contracts close to the actual price of bitcoin. When buyers pay sellers, it generally signals greater demand for positions that are betting on upside.

Multiple data show However, this optimism is based on a fragile structure:

• Buyer payments reached $1.6 million;
• Futures Open Interest Remains High at $36.4 Billion;
• Cash sales always exceed purchases;
• Options open interest increased to $38.6 billion;
• The cost of downside protection has increased significantly;
• The threshold of $80,000 remains the main support to defend.

Futures open interest fell only 0.3% from $36.5 billion a week earlier. Leveraged positions therefore remain numerous despite the recent decline in bitcoin.

This situation does not automatically cause a new fall. However, it increases market sensitivity. If the price falls sharply enough, the platforms can close long positions whose margin becomes insufficient. These automatic sales can then accelerate the initial movement.

Options reveal increased demand for protection

The options market is showing more caution. The 25-delta imbalance indicator, which compares the price of bearish hedges to equivalent bullish bets, rose from 5.2% to 8.6% in a week.

This progression shows that investors are willing to pay more to protect themselves against a decline. Put options are therefore becoming more sought after, even if bitcoin’s daily movements remain relatively moderate.

The gap between expected volatility and actually observed volatility also increased from -3.8% to +2.1%. The options market is now forecasting stronger future variations than those recorded recently.

This caution is explained by the persistent weakness in spot demand. Glassnode’s indicator that measures the gap between aggressive buying and selling deteriorated by 24.7%. His balance went from -67 million to -83.6 million dollars.

However, the daily volume changed little, with an increase from 5.4 to 5.5 billion dollars. Activity therefore remains stable, but sellers dominate trade more. This development does not confirm a sustainable accumulation capable of supporting leveraged long positions.

Glassnode describe thus a more defensive market, but not yet subject to extreme fear. The cost of protection increases, without reaching the levels usually associated with periods of panic.

The $80,000 threshold becomes the main test

Bitcoin is trading near $82,596. The $80,000 threshold has already attracted buyers since the October decline, but a further break could quickly change the balance.

Recent holders reinforce this vulnerability. The share of supply controlled by short-term investors increased from 14.5% to 14.7%, above its usual historical range. These players often react more quickly to price changes.

The proportion of bitcoins held with unrealized capital gain also fell from 70.1% to 68.2%. At the same time, the ratio of realized profits to losses fell from 0.8 to 0.4. The losses therefore become greater in relation to the gains received.

A drop below $80,000 could push traders to voluntarily reduce their positions, then trigger forced closures if the movement accelerates. Conversely, a rebound supported by real spot purchases would reduce this risk.

The Federal Reserve meeting on October 27-28 is the next catalyst. Tighter monetary policy could weigh on risky assets. The danger therefore comes not only from a drop in bitcoin, but from the leverage accumulated by traders who are still waiting for its recovery.