Bitcoin recently hit new all-time highs, fueling hopes of a prolonged bull market. Unfortunately, it eventually fell back. With the current cycle seemingly slowing down, when can we actually expect the queen of cryptos to reach its peak?
An accelerated cycle losing speed
When Bitcoin reached new highs in mid-March 2024, it was 260 days ahead of the usual post-Halving cycle. However, after two months of consolidation, this pace of acceleration has fallen significantly.
According to'analysis of Rekt Capitala recognized expert in the field of cryptocurrencies, if this slowing trend persists, it could gradually resynchronize the current cycle with the classic pattern where Bitcoin reaches its peak 518 to 546 days after the Halving.
However, rather than focusing solely on the Halving, it may be relevant to use previous all-time highs as reference points to anticipate a possible peak in the bull market.
Indeed, analysis of past cycles reveals that Bitcoin typically reaches a bullish peak within a range of 266 to 315 days after surpassing its previous all-time high. Bitcoin crossed this threshold in mid-March 2024, which allows us to reasonably envisage the next peak between the end of November 2024 and the end of January 2025.
The gradual lengthening of Bitcoin bull cycles
Despite the initial acceleration of the cycle, retrospective analysis reveals an interesting trend: Bitcoin spends more and more time above its old records before reaching a new high.
In 2013, this duration was 268 days, then it increased to 280 days in 2017 (+14 days) and to 315 days in 2021 (+35 days). If we extrapolate this trend, the next peak could only occur between mid-December 2024 and early March 2025, i.e. 280 to 350 days after exceeding the previous record.
However, if the current slowdown in the cycle is confirmed, Bitcoin could resynchronize with traditional post-Halving cycles. In this scenario, based on the 518 to 546 days observed during previous cycles, the next bullish peak would be pushed back to mid-September or mid-October 2025.
In short, although the euphoria of the start of 2024 has raised hopes of an early peak in the Bitcoin bull market, an in-depth analysis of past cycles and current dynamics calls for patience. Unless there is an improbable acceleration, the next absolute peak should not occur before the end of 2024, or even more likely during 2025.
Savvy investors should therefore take a long-term perspective and not get carried away by short-term market fluctuations. Only a strategic and disciplined approach will make it possible to take full advantage of Bitcoin's growth potential in the years to come.
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