Bitcoin has clearly performed well in recent weeks. However, nothing is decided yet. This surge is accompanied by a fairly striking rapprochement with gold. Everything could still change in a few days. The expected speech in Jackson Hole weighs heavily.
In brief
- Bitcoin increased by 26% in August 2026, clearly outpacing gold (+13.8%), the Nasdaq (+4.8%) and the S&P 500 (+3.2%) over the same period.
- Its 30-day correlation with gold rose to +0.81 while its link with the Dollar Index widened to -0.86, a sign of a change in status.
- The Treasury’s announcement of the doubling of long bond buybacks propelled bitcoin from 64,000 to almost 80,000 dollars in one week.
- Kevin Warsh’s first speech in Jackson Hole on August 28 is being closely scrutinized because it could validate or break the coordination scenario with the Treasury.
Why bitcoin outpaced gold and indices in August
August 2026 will undoubtedly remain a month apart. The price of bitcoin rose 26%. Gold, for its part, rose 13.8%. The Nasdaq gained 4.8% and the S&P 500 only 3.2%. It’s not the most interesting thing. The 30-day correlation between bitcoin and gold reached +0.81.
At the same time, its link with the Dollar Index fell to -0.86. In other words, bitcoin moves less and less like a classic risky asset. It begins to behave like a store of value. CoinDesk notes this bluntly : Bitcoin outperforms gold, the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500 and other major asset classes just when it matters most.
This change comes as long bond yields reached levels not seen since 2007. The Treasury reacted by announcing buybacks. But the question remains open. Is this a real change in status or just a market movement?
Bitcoin and gold: when the correlation becomes speaking
A correlation of +0.81 between bitcoin and gold is no longer a coincidence. The two assets now respond to the same logic. Investors are seeking protection against dollar devaluation. The famous “debasement trade” is clearly at work.
The American debt flirts with 40,000 billion dollars. The deficits are not going away. Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer summed it up pretty well the atmosphere :
The market perceives a slippery slope toward fiscal dominance and a potential loss of Fed independence. The assumption is that to successfully contain yields, the Treasury will need to significantly increase the size of buybacks.
Jurrien Timmer,
So, we buy gold. We also buy bitcoin. For the same reasons. Bitcoin is no longer just seen as a speculative bet. It is gradually gaining its stripes as a non-sovereign reserve of value. It remains to be seen whether the movement will hold up over time.
The Treasury has moved, will the Fed follow?
On August 19, Scott Bessent announced the doubling of long bond buybacks. Each operation now increases to 4 billion dollars. Bitcoin went from 64,000 dollars to approach 80,000 in one week. Gold also reacted.
Please note, however: this program is not quantitative easing. It does not inject new liquidity. The debt remains enormous. The markets therefore anticipate that the Fed could be forced to intervene one day or another.
Crypto Rover summarized the scenarios quite crudely: “ DOVISH → MARKETS RISING / HAWKISH → MARKETS FALLING / SILENT → MARKETS CONSOLIDATING “. The pressure on Kevin Warsh is real. Has the Treasury opened something it no longer fully controls? We will probably find out on Friday.
Warsh’s speech can change everything
Kevin Warsh speaks in Jackson Hole this August 28 for his first major speech as chairman of the Fed. The markets are especially watching for a possible signal on coordination with the Treasury.
A more dovish tone could further support bitcoin and gold. A very firm speech on the independence of the central bank would, on the contrary, risk pushing up yields and the dollar. In this case, bitcoin and gold could suffer.
BNY Mellon analysts are not necessarily expecting very specific announcements. Warsh has so far spoken little and guided the markets little. But the pressure exists. Part of the bullish scenario is already in prices. Will it confirm expectations or calm them all at once? We will know very soon.
Current key figures
- BTC price at time of writing: $77,406
- Bitcoin rise in August: 26%
- Bitcoin-gold correlation over 30 days: +0.81
- Gold’s progression over the period: 13.8%
- Amount of repurchases announced by the Treasury: 4 billion per operation
American budgetary tensions will profoundly change the reading of the gold-dollar pair in 2026. Gold retains its status as a reference safe haven. Bitcoin is getting closer and closer to it. Traders now have an interest in integrating this new reality into their analysis.
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