The cryptocurrency market gets carried away again, with a bitcoin that exceeds $ 97,000 after a brief correction under $ 95,000. This new rally, far from harmless, comes as the institutional and those of individuals report a weakening of the request. If this asset seems to evolve independently of the fundamentals specific to cryptos, it is actually caught up in an uncertain macroeconomic context. While trade tensions between the United States and China feed market nervousness, Bitcoin continues to draw attention. Investment flows, feeling indicators and the structure of derivative products testify to increasing prudence.
A rebound above $ 97,000, carried by economic tensions
Bitcoin has experienced increased volatility in recent days. Thus, the crypto oscillated under $ 95,000 before rebounding beyond $ 97,000. A trigger is the announcement of new Chinese taxes on American energy imports, especially on crude oil and liquefied natural gas. This decision immediately dropped bitcoin, which reflects a broader leakage trend towards assets deemed safer in the face of trade tensions.
However, the market reacted quickly, and returned to confidence after the response of Donald Trump, who imposed a 25 % tax on steel and aluminum. This political response stabilized traditional markets, but also allowed Bitcoin to find a level of support above $ 97,000. Despite this rebound, the signals of institutional weakness and those of private investors persist.
The data show that institutional purchase volumes do not follow this increase. Between February 3 and 7, the ETF Bitcoin In the United States has recorded incoming flows of only $ 204 million, a modest sum in view of the $ 742.3 million in Bitcoin acquired by Strategy during the same period. In addition, the premiums on the term contracts are in clear decline, and go from 11 % in early February to 8 % currently, a clear indicator that leverage traders reduce their exposure.
Investors in the face of growing economic uncertainty
If institutional demand runs out of steam, it is not so much because of a lack of interest in bitcoin, but rather because of a complex macroeconomic environment. Several factors contribute to this caution. The yields of American treasury bills at 10 years fell to 4.50 %, against 4.78 % a month ago, a sign that investors favor refuges values. This dynamic strengthened the US dollar, with a 108.30 February 108.30 index, which reflects a rising risk aversion to global markets.
At the same time, Moody's warned Against a possible degradation of the World Bank's credit note, which feeds fears of long -term financial repercussions. This announcement comes as the US government reviews its commitment to development banks, which further increases uncertainty.
Such prudence also manifests itself on the side of consumers. McDonald's reported a 1.4 % drop in sales in the United States in the fourth quarter, a signal that feeds fears of an economic slowdown. Faced with these uncertainties, many investors turn to liquidity, in order to reduce their exposure to risky assets, including Bitcoin.
Despite a drop-down demand on the institutional side, Bitcoin remains at the center of numerous regulatory initiatives in the United States, with several states that plan to constitute BTC reserves. This phenomenon could initiate a progressive accumulation, which would strengthen the role of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. The signals of a next rally beyond $ 100,000 are not to be excluded. Current prudence may well be only a temporary adjustment before a new phase of accumulation, especially if the regulatory and macroeconomic environment evolves favorably.
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