Benjamin Cowen observes that several bitcoin rebounds have lost momentum around the 21st of each month since August. The analyst is now forecasting a new low in mid-November, but this pattern is based on few observations and is not a statistical rule.
In brief
- Benjamin Cowen has observed a slowdown in bitcoin around the 21st of each month since August.
- The analyst anticipates a possible new low for BTC in mid-November.
- The drop below $83,000 weakens the scenario of a rebound before the American elections.
- The Fed, bond yields and Bitcoin ETF flows could influence the next trend.
- The “curse of 21” remains a fragile hypothesis, based on only a few months of observation.
Three monthly lows followed by a high around the 21st
Benjamin Cowen dubbed this phenomenon the “curse of 21”. According to him, bitcoin has been bottoming out for three months around the middle of the month, then rebounds before encountering resistance around the 21st.
However, the behavior is not perfectly identical every month. After August 21, BTC had further increased slightly until the beginning of September. The date therefore corresponds more to a slowdown in movement than to a precise and systematic summit.
The timetable put forward by the analyst is based on several points:
- Bitcoin bottomed on August 14;
- A new monthly low appeared on September 15;
- The last low was on October 15;
- The main rebound phases of August and September slowed down around the 21st;
- Residual strength sometimes extended the rise into the beginning of the following month;
- The next low could appear around mid-November if the pattern repeats.
Benjamin Cowen questioned on X: “What’s so special about 21?” “.
His scenario places a possible local summit between October 21 and the American mid-term elections on November 3.
At the time of its analysis, bitcoin was still defending the $83,000 zone. The price has since fallen back below this threshold, which weakens the scenario of further progress before the elections. The 50-day moving average near $81,700 now represents an important technical zone.
Elections and the Fed weigh more than the calendar
Cowen does not base his entire forecast on a simple repetition of dates. He also links this pace to the US elections and expectations surrounding monetary policy.
According to him, long-term bond yields tend to decline more sustainably after the midterm elections. A fall in market rates can support risky assets because it reduces the relative attractiveness of bonds and improves financial conditions.
The next meeting of the Federal Reserve therefore constitutes a more important event than the passage of October 21. Tighter policy, persistent inflation or a further rise in yields could weigh on bitcoin. Conversely, a more flexible discourse would support demand.
The price of oil, the dollar and spot Bitcoin ETF flows complete this equation. These factors can quickly change market behavior and invalidate a regularity observed over just a few months.
Cowen also remains favorable to bitcoin compared to altcoins. BTC dominance is approaching 61%, while ether and several altcoin indices are trading below their own 50-day moving average. This divergence shows that capital still favors the most important asset in the crypto market.
The “curse” remains a fragile hypothesis
A repetition over two or three months is not enough to establish a reliable calendar effect. To confirm an anomaly, one would have to analyze several cycles, compare the returns around each date and check if the results remain significant after transaction fees.
The choice of 21 can also create a bias. The observer remembers the dates that correspond to the scenario and gives less importance to the peaks or troughs that appear a few days before or after. A window that is too wide then makes it possible to find regularities in almost all price series.
Cowen’s scenario should therefore be seen as a benchmark to watch, not as a certain prediction. A lasting stay below $83,000 would weaken the recent recovery. Multiple weekly closes below this level would provide a stronger signal than intraday variation.
The market will mainly have to monitor the 50-day moving average, the Fed decision, US yields and flows into ETFs. These indicators will make it possible to judge whether Bitcoin is really preparing a new low in November or whether the “curse of 21” was just a coincidence.
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