Bitcoin Rebound, Crypto Market Recovery Coming? Analysis for August 13, 2024

After rebounding, Bitcoin underwent a consolidation phase before recently breaking its latest high. Let’s analyze together the future outlook for the BTC price.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Status

After falling significantly due to fears of a recession in the United States, Bitcoin bottomed at $49,200. At this level, the cryptocurrency rebounded by nearly 28%, reaching a high of $62,800. However, this bullish momentum began to wane from this level. BTC then entered a consolidation phase, trading in a range roughly between $56,000 and $62,800. Recently, Bitcoin broke out of this range to the top, setting a new high at $65,000.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $62,800. Buyers’ interest in the cryptocurrency seems to lack support. While the short-term structure seems to be confirmed to the upside, the medium-long term trend of the cryptocurrency remains uncertain. Indeed, although BTC has rebounded above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, these remain crossed downward, suggesting that this could be a simple breather. Nevertheless, we can be reassured by the fact that the Bitcoin price has clearly re-entered its point of control, located just below the $60,400 support. In terms of the cryptocurrency’s momentum, it is not surprising that it has rebounded slightly. This is reflected in the price of BTC itself as well as on its oscillators.

BTCUSD Daily ChartBTCUSD Daily Chart
BTCUSD Daily Chart

The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Now a trainer at Family Tradinga community of thousands of self-employed traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets in a professional and friendly atmosphere.

Zoom on derivatives (BTCUSDT)

Bitcoin’s latest fluctuations have been accompanied by an increase in open interest. This increase occurred as the CVD slightly recovered, indicating a slight excess of buying power over that of sellers. This indicates that speculators’ view of the future of Bitcoin’s price has recently become optimistic. This hypothesis is reinforced by funding rates, which have turned positive. On the liquidation side, they remain insignificant, which demonstrates a relatively stable market phase.

Bitcoin Open Interest / Liquidations / CVD & Funding rateBitcoin Open Interest / Liquidations / CVD & Funding rate
Bitcoin Open Interest / Liquidations / CVD & Funding rate

The liquidation heatmap over the past six months shows that BTC/USDT has two significant liquidation zones, located above $70,000 and $72,000. Below the current price, a weak liquidation zone is observed around $60,500. Further down, there are subtle zones at $57,200, $56,150, and $54,500. If the market approaches these levels, we could see a massive triggering of orders, potentially increasing the volatility of the cryptocurrency. These areas therefore represent major points of interest for investors.

BTC Liquidation Heatmap (6 months)BTC Liquidation Heatmap (6 months)
BTC Liquidation Heatmap (6 months)

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Hypotheses

  • If the Bitcoin price holds above $59,500, we could anticipate a reach of $65,600. The next resistance to consider would then be around $67,000. If the upward movement continues, we could envisage a continuation of the movement up to $70,000 or even $72,000. At this point, this would represent an increase of close to 15%.
  • If Bitcoin fails to hold above $59,500, we could see a return to around $56,200. The next support to consider, if the bearish movement continues, would be between $55,000 and $54,500. Further down, we can note the support at $49,200. At this point, this would represent a decline of around 21%.

Conclusion

Despite notable support after a strong initial rebound, Bitcoin’s trend remains uncertain. While the recent recovery is encouraging, signs of fragility persist, suggesting that caution is warranted going forward. As such, it will be crucial to carefully observe the price reaction at various key levels to confirm or refute current assumptions. It is also important to remain vigilant against potential market “fake outs” and “squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let’s remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also evolve rapidly based on other, more fundamental factors.

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