Bitcoin is sailing through troubled waters as November draws to a close. After a brutal fall below $81,000, the cryptocurrency is attempting a timid recovery around $88,000. Traders are now scrutinizing technical signals as a “death cross” looms over the daily charts. The week of Thanksgiving promises its share of macroeconomic turbulence. Will BTC manage to regain $100,000?
In brief
- Bitcoin is hovering around $86,500 after falling as low as $80,500 last week.
- A “death cross” formed on November 15 on the daily charts, a traditionally bearish technical signal.
- Long-term holders are selling massively while speculators are accumulating wildly.
- The week of Thanksgiving brings its share of crucial macroeconomic data despite its brevity.
Conflicting technical signals fuel the debate
Bitcoin just suffered a “death cross” on November 15. This signal appears when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. Historically, this phenomenon often heralds difficult times.
However, analyst Benjamin Cowen tempers: “ Previous bearish crosses marked local low points in the market “. In other words, this signal could paradoxically indicate a bottom rather than an imminent collapse.
Traders now scrutinize every move with intensity. The threshold of $88,000 acts as an insurmountable ceiling for the moment. BitBull, a recognized trader, nevertheless observes encouraging signs:
“ Bitcoin regained control of the 20-period moving average on the 4-hour chart for the first time in two weeks “.
This technical reconquestas modest as it is, fuels the hope of a rebound towards 105,000 or 110,000 dollars if the weekly close exceeds 92,000 dollars.
Michaël van de Poppe adopts an even more optimistic stance. He compares the current situation to the collapse of FTX at the end of 2022, which paradoxically marked the bottom of the last bear market.
“ Current sentiment and indicators are much more bullish than during the FTX affair “, he assures. According to him, trading between $90,000 and $96,000 seems likely this week. But be careful: without a quick rebound, the 200-day moving average could become the next downside target, erasing any hope of an immediate bullish recovery.
The battle between historical holders and new speculators
Behind the scenes of the market reveals a massive transfer in progress. CryptoQuant data show that 63,000 bitcoins changed hands recently.
Long-term holders, those who have held their coins for more than 155 days, are selling heavily. In contrast, newcomers accumulate frenziedly, attracted by what they perceive as a buying opportunity.
This dynamic illustrates a classic phenomenon in crypto markets. Veterans take their profits after the surge to $108,000 reached at the start of the month. Speculators, often guided by emotion more than strategy, pick up these “highly priced” coins, as CryptoOnChain puts it.
The SOPR ratio of short-term holders also plunged below 0.927 this weekend, its lowest level in 15 months. This figure means that a significant proportion of these recent traders are already selling at a loss.
The Fed at the heart of a decisive week
However, some experts see the beginnings of a turnaround. Ignacio Aguirre, marketing director at Bitget, believes that “ Bitcoin's rebound this weekend could be a harbinger of a broader market rally rather than a bull trap. Historically, November sees average gains of around 42% for BTC “.
The easing of retail capitulation does indeed suggest that the market may be bottoming in the near term.
The Thanksgiving week, although shortened, promises to be electric for the markets. The September producer price index, the PCE index and the third quarter GDP figures come in quick succession.
These economic data will guide expectations about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The chances of a rate cut in December hover around 70% according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. A confirmation of this scenario could give wings to risky assets like Bitcoin.
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