As I indicated in my analysis last week, the bearish scenario for Bitcoin remained the most likely. The market has indeed continued its correction and is now approaching an important technical zone. At the same time, ETF flows still remain too timid to speak of a real return of institutional conviction. Finally, on the Ondo side, the euphoria born after the SBI announcement attracted many individual investors, which encourages me to remain patient and disciplined on my entry points.
Bitcoin: the bearish scenario remains intact as long as resistances are not recovered
As I mentioned in the previous analysis, Bitcoin was heading towards the $60,000 zone. So far, this scenario is playing out pretty cleanly. The price came to test the $62,200 to $62,500 zone, which remains one of the most important short-term supports in the market today. It is precisely this zone which prevents, for the moment, a clearer acceleration towards 60,000 dollars then towards 58,000-59,000 dollars.
If we take a step back and look at the daily chart, the reading remains clear: Bitcoin is still evolving in a bearish structure. The highs are getting lower and lower, the rebounds are lacking in strength and the sellers are still holding control of the general trend. This does not mean that a rebound is impossible, but simply that on a macro scale there is not yet a sufficiently strong signal to speak of a lasting reversal.
As long as the price remains above this $62,200-62,500 zone, a technical rebound can still develop. On the other hand, a clear break of this support would, in my opinion, open the door to a faster movement towards $58,000-59,000. This is the next area I would watch very closely as it has served as a stronghold for the market in the past and could attract buyers again.
As I have already explained in my previous analyses, anything that brings Bitcoin below $65,000 seems interesting to me for gradually building a long-term position via a DCA strategy. No one can buy the exact low point with certainty. The objective is therefore not to guess the perfect price, but to accumulate at levels which remain, in my opinion, attractive in a long-term vision.
The 4-hour chart confirms that the bearish channel still dominates
Here I show you the four hour chart. We can very clearly see the bearish channel in which Bitcoin has been evolving for several sessions. The price came to touch the $62,250 area before rebounding slightly, but this rebound occurred without invalidating the bearish structure. In other words, Bitcoin is certainly rebounding, but it is still doing so within a technical framework that remains unfavorable.
This is an important point, because many investors too quickly interpret the slightest rebound as a signal of recovery. For my part, I prefer to stay faithful to what the chart shows: as long as the price respects this descending channel, the bias remains bearish. The $62,250 zone therefore continues to play a central role as support, but we will have to observe how the market reacts in the coming sessions. If this level gives way, selling pressure could accelerate quickly.
In summary, I remain bearish on Bitcoin in the short term. To consider a more constructive scenario, it would be necessary to at least revisit the price to sustainably return to higher resistance zones and exit cleanly from this descending structure.
Bitcoin ETFs Show Some Buying, But No Conviction Yet
If we look at the flows of Bitcoin ETFs, the message remains the same, also quite cautious. Since July 23, sales and capital outflows have, overall, been more marked than the purchases observed previously. The beginning of August clearly shows a slight return of inflows, but these amounts still remain modest and do not resemble what we observe during real phases of institutional accumulation.
Clearly, some buying is coming back, but nothing strong enough to say that big hands are back aggressively. To really change my reading, I would need to see several consecutive sessions with significantly more solid flows, capable of confirming a lasting return of institutional demand. For the moment, ETFs therefore do not invalidate my main scenario: that of a market which remains fragile and which could still experience another downward leg.
Ondo: FOMO is back, but patience remains the best strategy
I will now talk about Ondo, as it is an asset that I continue to follow closely. You remember that I started buying Ondo around $0.30, even before the SBI-related announcement a few days ago. Right after this announcement, we saw the classic crypto market scenario: many retail investors rushed into the asset, driven by FOMO, the news and the fear of missing an opportunity.
This is precisely why I often repeat that an investment is built when almost no one is yet talking about the project. The best opportunities rarely appear when everyone is already excited. Ondo had spent a long period accumulating laterally in daily units, in relative indifference. Then, the price broke its bearish channel, which triggered a rapid acceleration.
Today, the important point to watch is not a supposed perfect resistance, but rather the behavior of the price around $0.37. If Ondo were to close below this level, a new correction phase could quickly bring the price back towards the $0.30 to $0.32 zone. It is precisely this area that I will continue to monitor, as it could once again provide an accumulation opportunity if the market confirms strong support.
For my part, I chose to take profits on my spot position purchased around $0.30, because I think there is a real possibility of repositioning lower than the price at which I sold. In my view, it is often better to anticipate, lock in your gains, and then wait until retail investors withdraw and the market purges the excess euphoria. This is how, in my opinion, we can build wealth: buy when pessimism dominates, and not when everyone is already chasing the movement.
Conclusion
At this point, my reading remains simple. Bitcoin is still moving in a bearish structure and the $62,200-$62,500 area remains the most important support to watch in the short term. If this level breaks, I expect to see the market seek $58,000-$59,000. ETFs are showing some buying, but not yet sufficient strength to invalidate this scenario. Finally, on the Ondo side, the market has already reacted a lot to the SBI announcement, which pushes me to favor patience rather than FOMO.
As always, I prefer to accumulate when the market calms down, in areas that offer a better risk/return ratio.
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