After a marked decline, Bitcoin managed to stabilize and form a bullish structure that is still under construction. Discover our complete technical analysis and scenarios to watch for BTC.
In brief
- Technical analysis: The market is consolidating after a bullish breakout, with a still positive structure but weakened momentum in the short term.
- Technical Levels: Prices move between major defense zones and key resistances, likely to generate volatility in the event of a breakout.
- Market sentiment: Sentiment is shifting towards fear, reflecting weakened confidence and a more cautious approach from investors.
- Derivatives Analysis: Derivative indicators reflect an orderly and balanced market, without excess leverage or significant directional pressure.
- The forecast: The bias remains conditional, with a bullish structure preserved as long as major supports hold.
BTC/USD technical analysis
Bitcoin is trading around $93,000, recording a weekly advance of around 3%. This development takes place in a context of technical retracement after the bullish exit from a range, reflecting a phase of digestion of the previous movement rather than a trend reversal. Weekly spot volumes reach around $25.5 billion, up 14%, signaling a moderate increase in participation without speculative excess.
The long-term trend remains clearly bullish, supported by a 200-period moving average that is still positively oriented. In the medium term, the dynamic was neutralized after a phase of decline, reflecting a phase of gradual stabilization of the market. In the short term, the trend is moving upwards again, suggesting an attempt at recovery after the retracement observed recently. The momentum now shows a technical rebound: the oscillators, after having evolved largely downwards, signal a resumption of the dynamic, although this still remains fragile and requires confirmation to register sustainably.
Bitcoin (BTC) technical levels
Bitcoin is currently trading under several major resistances, located at $97,913, $107,461, then $116,400, before the all-time high at $126,219. These levels constitute critical zones likely to play a distribution role if buying pressure were to run out of steam. On the downside, supports identified at $89,226, $83,496 and $80,619 represent major defense levels, historically associated with accumulation phases.
The last daily break above $95,000 marks the crossing of a resistance corresponding to the top of a range in place since November 2025, reinforcing the validity of the underlying bullish structure. The monthly pivot point at $88,686 remains below the current price and continues to serve as a key benchmark for monthly momentum. The volume profile highlights a high value zone around $111,000 and a low value zone at $87,551, framing a market equilibrium whose breakdown could generate directional acceleration.
Market sentiment
Market sentiment is now moving on the fear threshold, reflecting pessimistic confidence and increased caution among investors. This deterioration in sentiment occurs despite a still constructive technical structure, highlighting a gap between perception and price dynamics. Net flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs appear broadly balanced, suggesting that institutional players are adopting a reactive stance, following price movements rather than playing a driving role in the current trend.
The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elyfeand investors and popularizers in the cryptocurrency market.
Derivatives analysis (BTC/USDT)
Derived indicators depict a generally stable and orderly market. Open interest remains stable, indicating measured speculative positioning and the absence of directional overcommitment. CVD flows remain balanced, although a slight selling dominance is observed, reflecting moderate pressure without marked imbalance. Liquidations remain low and without significant bias, confirming a healthy market environment, without major forced selloffs. The funding rate, slightly positive, reflects a moderate predominance of long positions, without excess leverage.
The selling liquidation zone between $98,290 and $112,634 appears to be a critical threshold: a crossing could reinforce the bullish momentum, but it could also serve as a distribution zone if the market loses strength. In contrast, the buy zone between $84,000 and $89,000 remains vulnerable to a breakdown, likely to cause bearish acceleration, while representing a potential point of interest for strategic accumulation.
Bitcoin (BTC) price forecasts
Bullish scenario:
- Conditions: Maintained above $89,226.
- Goals: $97,913, then $107,461 and $116,400.
- Potential: Around 25% upside from current level.
Bearish scenario:
- Conditions: Support broken at $89,226.
- Goals: $83,496, then $80,619.
- Potential: Approximately -13% downside from current level.
Bitcoin is evolving in a consolidation phase after a bullish breakout, with a still positive underlying structure but a weakened market sentiment. Derived indicators confirm a balanced environment, without speculative excess, while technical levels closely monitor price developments. In this context, it will be essential to closely monitor the price reaction at strategic levels in order to confirm or adjust current forecasts. Finally, remember that these analyzes are based solely on technical criteria, and that the price of cryptocurrencies can evolve quickly depending on other more fundamental factors.
Could Bitcoin follow the precious metals trend? Find out why gold and silver are continuing their rise.
Maximize your Tremplin.io experience with our 'Read to Earn' program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
