ETF Bitcoin in cash recorded 12 consecutive days of net entries, totaling $ 6.6 billion in new capital. Blackrock alone brought nearly $ 500 million in one day during this period. July 10 and 11 marked two consecutive days of entries each exceeding a billion dollars, a first in the institutional framework.
In short
- The BTC forms a bullish configuration, repeating a consolidation over six candles, with a target at $ 133,000.
- ETF Bitcoin in cash recorded $ 6.6 billion in 12 days, testifying to a record institutional request.
- The correlation between Bitcoin and Vix fell under -59 %, suggesting greater independence from the assets.
- A low level of the VIX could precede increased volatility of bitcoin and possible price acceleration.
Institutional investors stimulate the growth of ETF in cash
As of July 18, the total net assets of ETF BTC in cash exceeded $ 154 billion, reflecting growing institutional trust. The volume remained high, ranging from 3.76 to more than 6.7 billion daily dollars. This demand continues to strengthen the supply floor and the force of liquidity of Bitcoin.
The ETPS Ether in cash has also displayed a strong dynamic in the past two weeks, contributing to the general tendency of institutional accumulation. Just Friday, ETFE ETHEREUM attracted $ 402.50 million, bringing total net flows to $ 7.49 billion. The series culminated on July 16 with a daily influx record of $ 726.74 million, followed by 602.02 million on July 17, testifying to the growing attraction of Ethereum alongside Bitcoin on the regulated markets.
BTC graphics suggest a familiar rally scheme
The daily graph shows that Bitcoin forms an upward structure similar to that observed earlier in July. After a consolidation of six days, the price recorded an increase of 12.24 %. Currently, a new consolidation phase on six candles is being formed, which can precede a breakthrough of 11.21 % towards the $ 133,250.
On the hourly graph, Bitcoin consolidates in a symmetrical triangle from its highest historic at $ 123,231 reached on July 14, and its low point at $ 115,697 on July 15. This scheme reflects an indecision phase, characterized by lower and lower summits and increasingly high hollows, which converge towards a potential breakout area.
A potential “head and shoulders” scheme appeared near the tip of the triangle. If it is confirmed, it could trigger a breakout towards the upper terminal, located at $ 119,857. The neck line in the figure coincides with a key resistance zone, capable of attracting aggressive orders in the event of rupture.
The Williams Alligator indicator shows that the green, red and blue lines are tightened, a sign of reduced volatility and potential energy accumulation. A bullish crossing would validate a prosecution of the ascending movement, while a lowering crossing could lead to a rejection of the price.
VIX decreases while bitcoin signals growing independence from the market
Recent analyzes highlight the increasingly negative correlation between Bitcoin and the CBOE volatility index (VIX). According to Alphracttal, the correlation of the BTC with the VIX since the beginning of 2025 is at -59.91 %. Historically, this type of decoupling often precedes volatile and autonomous price movements.
The VIX, nicknamed the index of fear of Wall Street, measures the implicit volatility of the markets based on the options of the S&P 500. When it is low, this reflects a climate of calm on the traditional markets, and Bitcoin then tends to evolve more autonomously. In the past, this type of configuration has already led to significant price increases.
The VIX is currently a 16.41, its lowest level for more than a year. A similar drop had been observed in previous cycles, especially in early 2016, mid-201 and early 2023. Each time, Bitcoin then entered a new increased volatility phase, accompanied by marked directional movements.
This divergence suggests that Bitcoin could be freed from the influence of the general feeling of equity markets. According to analyst Joao, low Vix environments divert the attention of macroeconomic triggers to catalysts specific to the crypto ecosystem. The combination of incoming massive flows in ETFs and reduced volatility suggests that the next big Bitcoin movement could already be in formation.
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