The recent Fed rate cut has reignited speculation in the crypto market. Yet bitcoin traders are now aiming for 2026, with ambitious targets at $130,000 and $180,000 in the first quarter, rather than an immediate rebound at the end of the year.
In brief
- Bitcoin traders are targeting $130,000 and $180,000 in the first quarter of 2026, after the Fed rate cut.
- The Fed now directly influences the crypto market, with purchases of $40 billion in monthly Treasury bills, favoring institutional accumulation in bitcoin.
- 2025 ends on a mixed note, but Bitcoin ETFs and forecasts for monetary easing in 2026 point to an explosive year.
Bitcoin traders are tempering their expectations for a “ Santa rally »
After the Fed's recent rate cut, data shows a record concentration of call options for March 2026, with strikes at $130,000 and $180,000. Additionally, the $100,000 strike for December 2025 dominates open interest, with 20,900 contracts, including 18,360 calls, or 88% of activity. This trend reflects an expectation of a gradual rise rather than an immediate rally.
Analysts believe the rebound potential is limited to $99,000 by the end of 2025, due to reduced liquidity and falling volatility. Bitcoin, currently around $89,500, is down 5.5% from its post-Fed peak of $94,267. Traders therefore favor patient accumulation for 2026.
Strategies like long call condors and bull call spreads dominate, indicating confidence in measured upside. Institutions, like BlackRock and Grayscale, are reinforcing this dynamic by massively accumulating bitcoin through their ETFs.
The Fed, a new major influence on the crypto market?
The Fed's decision to purchase $40 billion in Treasury bills per month aims to maintain liquidity in the banking system. This maneuver, although technical, indirectly supports risky assets like bitcoin. Traders are now watching the Fed's upcoming statements, as any indication of extended easing in 2026 could trigger a new wave of buying. As Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, thinks:
Powell's suggestion of a pause in rate cuts after December reduces political uncertainty and promotes more stable crypto adoption in the long term. Markets gain conviction when monetary direction is clear, encouraging traders to favor assets like Bitcoin over speculative altcoins.
A paradox persists: despite inflation still above 2%, the Fed favors support for employment, which reassures the crypto markets. Current strategies, like long call condors, reflect an expectation of a gradual rise, but not a disorderly rally. According to Michael Saylor, banks are quietly integrating bitcoin, thereby building trust in the long term.
2025, a mixed end of the year for an explosive bitcoin in 2026?
Bitcoin had a volatile 2025, peaking at $126,000 in October, followed by a correction below $90,000 in November. Traders are now focusing on patient accumulation with a view to a rebound in 2026. Bitcoin ETFs have seen record inflows, with over $21 billion since the third quarter of 2025.
Catalysts for 2026 include potential monetary easing from the Fed, growing institutional adoption, and a stable geopolitical backdrop. Some analysts predict bitcoin at $250,000 in 2026, subject to stability. Others agree on a potential of $130,000 to $180,000 in Q1 2026. The next few months will be decisive in confirming these forecasts.
Bitcoin traders have made their strategy clear: 2025 ends without “ Santa rally ”, but with methodical preparation for an explosive 2026. The targets at $130,000 and $180,000 therefore reflect confidence in monetary policies and institutional adoption. The question is no longer if BTC will reach these levels, but when.
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