The mid-term elections in the United States could well breathe new life into the crypto and stock markets, and give wings to bitcoin. In any case, this is what Binance Research says in a report published this week. However, before getting there, the path remains strewn with geopolitical pitfalls.
In brief
- The US midterm elections could trigger a rebound in bitcoin and stocks.
- Historical data shows an average rise of 54% in Bitcoin after these election cycles.
- Political uncertainty generally disappears after the vote, which encourages the return of risk appetite.
- However, tensions in the Middle East and the surge in oil prices could weigh on markets in the short term.
The American elections, a historic catalyst for Bitcoin
The US mid-term elections scheduled for November 3, 2026 could play a key role for financial markets. According to a recent report from Binance Research, these election cycles have historically marked the start of bullish phases for risk assets, including bitcoin and stocks.
The explanation rests on a simple factor: the disappearance of political uncertainty. In the months leading up to the election, investors often adopt a cautious posture. However, once the results are known and the balance of Congress has been clarified, the markets generally return to a more favorable investment climate.
The historical data is revealing. Since 2013, the twelve months following the midterm elections have produced on average:
- +19% for the S&P 500
- +54% for Bitcoin
This phenomenon is part of the logic of American macroeconomic cycles. When the political landscape becomes more predictable, liquidity returns to risky assets. In a context where Bitcoin is gradually establishing itself as an institutional asset, supported by ETFs, banks and certain sovereign strategies, the impact could be even more marked.
Previous cycles also illustrate this pattern. Intervening years like 2014, 2018 or 2022 have often seen major crypto market corrections. However, subsequent periods were marked by powerful phases of recovery.
For Binance analysts, the year following the elections could thus become “the most favorable period of the cycle”.
Geopolitics and oil, the risks weighing on the market
In the short term, however, the trajectory of bitcoin depends on a more immediate factor: geopolitics. Tensions in the Middle East, notably involving the United States, Israel and Iran, are currently fueling high volatility on global markets.
The price of oil briefly reached $95 per barrel after attacks on energy infrastructure in the region. Some Iranian officials even raise the possibility of a barrel of 200 dollars if the military escalation continues.
This energy surge is creating pressure on risky assets. Historically, when energy prices soar, investors favor traditional safe havens.
However, some players in the crypto sector see this situation as an opportunity. Gracy Chen, CEO of the Bitget platform, believes that cryptos could benefit from an amplified effect if liquidity conditions stabilize.
According to her, Bitcoin's high beta profile means its upside potential could exceed that of stocks when political uncertainty dissipates.
In the meantime, bitcoin is marking time. It is trading at $70,460 at the time of writing this article, caught in a consolidation zone where short-term liquidity flows dictate every move.
Between political cycles and geopolitical tensions, the crypto market is navigating a pivotal period. The midterm elections could provide the catalyst investors have been waiting for. If history repeats itself, bitcoin could enter a new bullish phase. But for now, it is still the barrel of oil that dictates its law.
Maximize your Tremplin.io experience with our 'Read to Earn' program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
