What if Bitcoin had not yet reached its peak? While the markets digest their recent upheavals, a projection based on historical signals puts the bullish cycle in perspective. According to a technical analysis supported by the Aviv ratio, an unknown behavioral indicator, Bitcoin could peak up to $ 330,000. Analyst Gert Van Lagen connects this hypothesis to a sustained dynamic of accumulation, which indicates that the current Bull Run could be far from having said his last word.
In short
- Bitcoin could still climb up to $ 330,000 according to a little -known technical indicator, the Aviv ratio.
- This ratio compares the actual market activity to the invested value and has historically preceded the major cycle tops.
- Several technical data suggest that the market has not yet reached its summit, despite the current increase.
- The market remains volatile, but the data converge on the hypothesis of a Bull Run still unfinished.
A statistical indicator points to $ 330,000
While the whales accumulate, and the small carriers flee out of fear, the market technician Gert Van Lagen in a recent publication on X has put forward a metric called Aviv Ratio (active Value to Invested Value), which measures the relationship between the active capitalization of Bitcoin, that is to say the funds in motion, and its capitalization really invested in the Mining.
According to him, this indicator, when he exceeds his threshold of +3 standard deviations (σ) above his historical average, systematically marks a top of the cycle. He underlines that this was the case during the previous peaks: “The BTC was worth $ 1,200 in 2013, almost $ 20,000 in 2017 and around $ 69,000 in 2021”.
However, to date, the Aviv Ratio has not yet crossed this threshold, which leads it to estimate that “The price could increase to at least $ 330,000 in this cycle before a top is reached”.
Van Lagen's model draws attention to its ability to capture the imbalance between speculative activity and long -term investments. It is based on well -defined historical precedents. Here are the key elements to remember:
- The Aviv Ratio has not yet crossed the critical threshold of +3σ, often correlated with a market top;
- Historically, this crossing preceded the major heights of 2013, 2017 and 2021;
- Today, the ratio remains under this level, which suggests a significant residual bullish potential;
- Van Lagen, however, stresses that “The predictive precision of the ratio is not yet validated in all market contexts” ;
- Market volatility remains a significant adjustment variable, likely to biaise the interpretation of the signal.
This ratio, although little widespread in mainstream circles, stands out as an interesting alternative tool to follow the evolution of the in progress bullish cycle, in addition to the more conventional indicators.
Institutional accumulation and the model of power law
In addition to the technical signals, another phenomenon draws the attention of analysts: the fall in Bitcoin sales on the OTC desks (over-the-color), often used by institutional investors to buy or sell large volumes.
According to cryptocurrency datathese sales went from 166,500 BTC to 137,400 BTC this year, a decline of more than 29,000 BTC in a few months. This marked decline is interpreted as a movement of strategic accumulation.
In addition, this decline is mainly due to “The aggressive purchase of Strategy”as well as at the remarkable entry of Metaplanet, which acquired 10,000 BTC. In addition, there are robust incoming flows in cash flows in cash, whose cumulative net value is now 128.18 billion dollars, and BlackRock BTC assets, estimated at more than $ 70 billion.
In parallel with this silent accumulation, a second forecast model, developed by the researcher of Bitcoin Smininston With, strengthens the hypothesis of a high cycle top. By relying on a simple 365 -day mobile average integrated into a model in power law (Power Law), it projects a price between 220,000 and 330,000 dollars for this cycle.
Its analysis, the reliability of which is statistically supported by a determination coefficient of R² = 0.96, defies the idea that the volatility of the bitcoin is reduced over the years. According to him, “The cycles of Bitcoin price continue to show significant differences in relation to the trend, invalidating the idea of progressive market stabilization ”.
These signals, although optimists, must be discussed with discernment. Neither the decline in OTC sales nor statistical models can guarantee a linear upward trajectory. However, they draw the contours of a market that is always dynamic and potentially far from its summit, in particular in a context of sustained institutional accumulation, as evidenced by 3 % of the supply of BlackRock. The combination of indicators still far from saturation and a change in behavior of major investors could, if it continues, pave the way for price levels never reached before. The market remains volatile, the models remain imperfect, but the signals converge: the final phase of this Bull Run could be more spectacular.
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