The author of The Black Swan, Nassim Taleb, returns to the forefront with a severe warning. According to him, bitcoin is in major danger in the face of the growing instability of derivatives markets.
In brief
- Nassim Taleb warns of the systemic risks linked to leverage which seriously threaten bitcoin.
- He compares bitcoin to a speculative bubble, with no real value or concrete economic utility.
Bitcoin and leverage: the explosive cocktail denounced by Taleb
On December 29, the silver price fell sharply by 9%. This is its strongest daily decline since 2020. This unexpected crash woke up Nassim Taleb, regular critic of bitcoin. The latter indeed sees this as an alarming signal for the markets.
On X, Taleb states that the fall of money has nothing to do with industrial demand or jewelry. It results from excessive leverage, squeezed margins and forced chain liquidations.
According to him, this mechanism could hitting bitcoin with similar intensity. Taleb even accuses crypto-assets of being driven by cheap credit and unlimited speculation. When volatility rises, margin calls force positions to liquidate one after the other. The crypto derivatives market is no exception to this logic.
A brutal analogy: Bitcoin, new digital tulipomania?
True to his position, Taleb continues to comparing bitcoin to an asset with no real value. He readily classifies it in the category of “electronic tulips”, in reference to the famous tulipomania of the 17th century. According to him, bitcoin has indeed failed as a currency, as a safe haven and as a diversification tool. It would therefore not provide any fundamental utility.
The partial rebound of silver price (+3.1% the next day) was not enough to reassure Taleb, who predicted new waves of liquidations if volatility remains high. Some crypto analysts nevertheless envisage an upward trajectory towards $90.90 in 2026. But the prospect of a violent purge is hovering over leveraged assets, and bitcoin is in the lead.
For the author, the system is based on a fragile balance. An exogenous shock or investor panic would be enough to trigger a series of massive sales. Bitcoin, already subject to strong fluctuations, could therefore collapse without notice.
In any case, the warning signs are multiplying. It remains to be seen whether investors will heed this warning or maintain their bet. The fate of bitcoin could well be decided in the coming weeks.
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