An analyst predicts an upward return of bitcoin within 3 months

Bitcoin vacillates, with a loss of more than 20 % from its historic summit, which revives fears of a brutal reversal. However, some see it as a simple stop time in an always active cycle. Thus, for Timothy Peterson, this decrease remains moderate with regard to previous lower markets, and is part of a classic phase of consolidation rather than a structural collapse.

Temporary fold: a “Bear Market” under control?

According to Timothy Peterson, analyst at Cane Island Alternative Advisors and author of “Metcalfe's law as a model for bitcoin's value», The current drop in bitcoin is not exceptional with regard to market history.

He describes it as a normal phase as part of a classic crypto cycle. Indeed, “Only four Bear Markets were more severe than the current decline in terms of duration: those of 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024“, note-Is in a publication on the social network X (ex Twitter) on March 22, 2025, before adding that such folds generally occur once a year.

His projections are based on several key points:

• The early period of correction: 90 days, as much as possible;
• The risk of collapse under the $ 50,000: deemed very low given the growing adoption and institutional support;
• The probability of a fall under $ 80,000: also low, according to the trends observed;
• A market forecast: a potential decline in the next 30 days, followed by a rally of 20 to 40 % from April 15, in coherence with the previous cycles, especially around “day 120”.

If this analysis was confirmed, it could reactivate the speculative appetite of certain short -term investors. The post-root upward dynamic, if it took place, could serve as a catalyst for a new momentum.

But at this stage, macroeconomic conditions and the absence of new capital remain obstacles to a frank reversal. The scenario of a spring rebound is thus based on a precarious balance between technical confidence and external triggers.

The weight of macroeconomic tensions on the market feeling

Beyond the technical analysis, other signals weigh on market morale. In the background, the trade tensions triggered by the recent pricing policies of President Trump have rekindled fears of a global slowdown.

These announcements caused a joint fall in Bitcoin and other risky assets, which questioned, at least temporarily, the narration of bitcoin as “refuge”.

“”The appetite of investors for speculative assets decreases due to the trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty“Confirms Nicolai Sondergaard, analyst at Nansen.

This disengagement is reflected in on-chain data. The latest Glassnode report shows that the “hot supply” (the proportion of BTC held for less than a week) increased from 5.9 % in November 2024 to only 2.3 % on March 2025.

In parallel, a cryptocurrency study stresses that the majority of retail investors are already on Bitcoin, which reduces the hope of an influx of new short -term capital. This context limits the immediately rebounded prospects, despite the hopes placed in a possible post-root rally.

Far from a simple technical movement, this withdrawal phase provides information on the persistent fragility of the market in the face of external shocks. If Timothy Peterson's projections materialize, the market could find a certain balance by early summer. But in the absence of favorable macroeconomic signals or a renewed dynamic, Bitcoin may remain under pressure. It remains to be seen whether the current resistance constitutes a solid base for a new bullish phase, or simply a temporary lull before other turbulence.