Bitcoin is trading around $59,350 this Thursday, after rebounding from $59,000 on Wednesday. The imminent release of the US PCE index could retest this floor. Will support hold in the face of potentially higher-than-expected inflation data?
In brief
- Bitcoin touched $59,000 on Wednesday before rebounding to $59,500 overnight.
- The overall PCE index is expected to increase by 4.1% year-on-year in May 2026, the highest since April 2023.
- A higher-than-estimate underlying PCE would strengthen expectations of Fed rate hikes.
Why $59,000 is the threshold to watch
The $59,000 level established itself as reference support after two separate occurrences of rebounds. In trading, support is only confirmed when the price holds it at least twice. On June 5, the decline ran out of steam at exactly this level before rebounding to $67,000 in the following days. On Wednesday, the scenario repeated itself.
This level is not a coincidence. It concentrates sufficient buying demand to absorb selling pressure. As long as he holds, buyers remain in position to impose their tempo. A clear break below, on the other hand, would reopen the question of a more marked decline.
The dynamic is not new. As of June 23, the fall of the Nasdaq had already brought the threshold of $60,000 back to the center of debate, dragging bitcoin in its wake. Two days later, the scenario repeats itself.
American PCE, inflation as a catalyst for volatility
The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index will be released this Thursday. This is the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve to calibrate its monetary policy. A figure higher than expected would reinforce expectations of a rate hike, which would support the dollar and mechanically weigh on risky assets, including bitcoin.
But the forecasts are already high. The overall PCE should stand at 4.1% over one year, its highest level since April 2023. The basic PCE is expected between 3.3% and 3.4%, a peak since October 2023. Exceeding these thresholds would signal that the resumption of inflation is not a one-off effect linked to energy tensions at the start of the year, but a lasting trend.
Conversely, a figure below estimates would calm concerns about rates, slow the progression of the dollar index (DXY) and provide buyers with an excuse to push from $59,000. Two scenarios decided for a single piece of data.
In this context of double pressure, tensions on the Fed on the one hand, persistent correlation with the Nasdaq on the other, bitcoin remains hanging by a thread. The $59,000 support is now the line that buyers cannot let give way. The PCE publication will say from Thursday whether this floor will be enough to hold.
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