Hackers don’t need to break Bitcoin’s cryptography to steal billions of dollars. While quantum risk remains uncertain, artificial intelligence is already making it possible to automate fault finding, phishing and attacks against platforms that hold users’ cryptos.
In brief
- Artificial intelligence poses a more immediate threat to Bitcoin than quantum computing.
- Hackers use AI to detect vulnerabilities and target crypto platforms.
- Around 6 million BTC could be exposed to future quantum attacks.
- Current quantum computers are not yet capable of breaking Bitcoin cryptography.
- The crypto sector must strengthen its cybersecurity while preparing for its transition to post-quantum cryptography.
AI attacks front doors rather than Bitcoin
Cory Klippsten, founder of Swan Bitcoin, sees artificial intelligence as a more immediate threat than quantum computing. Large language models now allow hackers to analyze code, find faulty configurations, and plan attacks with just a few instructions.
“We discover that the near-term threat is actually AI”did he declared. According to him, hackers use LLMs to “examine all systems for flaws”with a speed that reduces the technical cost of an attack.
This development, however, requires several levels of security to be distinguished:
- The Bitcoin protocol continues to operate normally;
- Centralized platforms remain exposed to malware;
- Employees can be targeted by personalized phishing campaigns;
- AI tools accelerate code and infrastructure analysis;
- Key management errors remain a major weakness.
Recent attacks illustrate this difference. Mercado Bitcoin has suspended its deposits and withdrawals after an incident in which more than $46 million reportedly left its wallets. A few days earlier, Binance had suffered a theft of $6.3 billion, attributed by the FBI to North Korean hackers.
These events do not mean that the Bitcoin blockchain has been compromised. Hackers instead target computers, private keys, employees and internal company procedures. AI therefore does not yet break cryptographic signatures. It increases the chances of finding a human or software weakness around them.
Six million BTC remain exposed to quantum risk
Quantum threat works differently. A sufficiently powerful computer could use a public key visible on the blockchain to find the corresponding private key. The hacker would then be able to sign a transaction without accessing the owner’s wallet or computer system.
According to Glassnode, approximately 6.04 million BTC, or 30.2% of the supply already issuedare on outputs whose public key is exposed. Nearly 1.92 million BTC falls under structural exposure linked to old script formats. The remaining 4.12 million are mainly concerned with address reuse or certain retention practices.
This does not mean that these bitcoins can be stolen today. Current quantum computers lack the power and error correction needed to effectively attack Bitcoin cryptography.
Cory Klippsten estimates that a truly dangerous machine is at least ten years away, if not more. He therefore considers it premature to immediately add complex solutions to the protocol that have not yet been sufficiently tested.
This position is not shared by all specialists. Researchers estimate that a future machine with around 30,000 physical qubits could theoretically crack a key in 62 minutes. The model remains experimental, but it greatly reduces previous estimates of power required.
Europol therefore recommends preparing for a gradual migration towards post-quantum cryptography. The agency underlines that the main challenge will not only be technical. Thus, developers, platforms and holders will have to coordinate the movement of funds to new wallet formats.
Bitcoin must secure the present without neglecting the future
The opposition between AI and quantum computing should not lead the sector to choose a single threat. The two risks simply occur on different timetables.
In the short term, businesses need to strengthen device protection, limit administrative access, and separate critical keys. They must also manually verify code changes proposed by AI and train their employees against increasingly credible fraudulent messages.
Klippsten warns that companies handling client funds cannot rely on software developed in a hurry. “You really have to know what you’re doing when it comes to security”he insists.
In the longer term, Bitcoin will need to have a quantum migration plan before the appearance of a machine capable of breaking its signatures. Waiting for a confirmed attack would be risky, as changing address formats and transferring millions of BTC could take several years.
The immediate danger therefore does not come from a quantum computer capable of breaking Bitcoin. It comes with AI tools that make traditional attacks faster, cheaper, and accessible to more hackers. The priority is to protect current access, while methodically preparing for tomorrow’s cryptography.
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