A year after its fourth halving, Bitcoin displays an disconcerting trajectory. If the crypto has climbed well since April 2024 – bordering on the $ 109,000 in January – its progression remains pale compared to the previous cycles. A paradox? Despite absolute records, the annual growth rate caps 49 %, far from the quadruples figures of the past. How to explain this historical slowdown, when the ETF and the programmed shortage of Bitcoins had to propel the market?
In short
- Bitcoin has come close to $ 109,000, but its annual increase remains limited to 49 %, far from previous cycles.
- The high interest rates and the post-election volatility of Trump slowed down its dynamics.
- The minors, faced with record costs, sell massively, weighing on the price of Bitcoin.
- Despite the ETF Spot, Bitcoin is now evolving in a fragile balance between innovation and economic realities.
Bitcoin after halving: a halftone assessment
In 2012, Bitcoin jumped 8,000 % a year after his first halving. In 2016, +277 %, then +762 %in 2020. This time, the king of cryptos struggles to exceed 50 %. However, the fundamentals seemed to be gathered: reduction of mining awards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block, approval of the ETF Spot … But the macroeconomic context played the spoilsport. “Interest rates have never been so high”underlines Dessislava Aubertanalyst at Kaiko. A hostile environment for risky assets, Bitcoin in mind.
The election of Donald Trump in 2024 injected a dose of unprecedented volatility. If its inauguration propelled Bitcoin to $ 109,000, fears linked to its trade war and erratic economic measures then eroded the gains. Investors, accustomed to post-2008 monetary stability, are now sailing in troubled waters. Result: Bitcoin oscillates between fleeting euphoria and chronic prudence.
The minors are undergoing a double penalty. The drop in awards is accompanied by a record mining difficulty – synonymous with increased operational costs. “Farms must sell more BTC to survive”explains Curtis Harris of Compass Mining. A vicious circle: these massive sales slow down the valuation of the area, while competition intensifies for ever thinner margins.
Mining in danger: the other side of the medal
Faced with this hostile landscape, the historic mining actors reinvent themselves. Optimization of energy costs, using more effective technologies … Survival requires drastic rationalization. “Those who hoped for a million dollars live in the illusion”Assène Shanon Squires, mining director at Compass Mining. The speculative expectations bubble broke out, giving way to brutal realism.
The arrival of ETF Spot in January 2024 was to attract institutional capital, compensating for the retail slowdown. But the effect was mixed. If these products have drained billions, their impact on the price remains limited by the forced sales of minors and the outings of funds during geopolitical crises. ETFs are no longer a life buoy, but one of others in a fragmented ecosystem.
Bitcoin matures, and its cycles too. Halving is no longer a simple algorithm trigger for bubbles, but an event drowned in an ocean of external variables. Guiding rate, monetary policies, geopolitical tensions … The cryptocurrency evolves in a world where each gain is earned. It remains to be seen whether this new maturity prefigures stabilization … or slow erosion.
Bitcoin experiences a painful metamorphosis. His Halving 2024 will have revealed his vulnerability to external shocks, but also his resilience. Between mining in search of profitability and investors on permanent alert, the BTC now embodies a fragile balance between financial innovation and economic reality. A lesson for cryptocurrency: even decentralized, Bitcoin does not live outside the world.
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