A Bitcoin Bear Market Indicator Resurfaces!

A rare signal, feared by traders, has just resurfaced on the bitcoin chart. For the first time since 2022, the asset crosses a critical technical zone, rekindling memories of a prolonged bear market. This crossing of moving averages, often associated with lasting reversals, fuels concerns about a scenario that has already been seen. While the post-halving euphoria struggles to convince, this return to a forgotten configuration could well mark an unexpected turning point in the current BTC cycle.

The Bearish Crossover Signal: A Return to 2022 Market Patterns

For the first time since April 2022, bitcoin's 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) has fallen below its 50-week counterpart, as the crypto is already falling amid declining risk appetite.

This technical event, closely followed by analysts, was confirmed by Rekt Capital which declared this Monday on X: “the exponential moving averages of Bitcoin’s bull market have officially just crossed”.

This crossover is seen as an indicator of trend reversal and, historically, it has often marked the entry into prolonged consolidation phases. During the previous similar crossover, which occurred in the second quarter of 2022, bitcoin took around seven months to form a bottom, at $15,600, in November of the same year.

This technical configuration fuels discussions on the current structure of the cycle. If some observers still contest the validity of the four-year model, several analysts see it as an almost mechanical repetition of a bearish scenario already experienced. The following were noted in this analysis:

• The 21W EMA has crossed below the 50W EMA: a signal identical to that of the 2022 bear market;
• The history of the previous cross: 7 months of decline before reaching a significant low;
• The current consolidation zone: BTC oscillates around $65,000, without confirmation of a bullish recovery;
• A dominant technical reading: several analysts mention “a classic bear market setup”suggesting a gradual weakening rather than a sudden crash.

The Bitcoin/Silver Ratio: A Return to Post-FTX Levels

Another worrying signal comes from the behavior of bitcoin against precious metals, and more particularly silver.

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that the BTC/Silver ratio had returned to its levels at the end of 2022, a period marked by the collapse of the FTX platform. “Bitcoin is currently trading, relative to silver, at levels equivalent to those seen during the FTX collapse” he commented on “mind-blowing”. The graph, shared with its subscribers, shows that silver reached this level in half the time as bitcoin, despite a general rise against the dollar.

This asymmetry of performance calls into question the current perception of risk and the prioritization of assets considered as safe havens. Although both assets have appreciated in nominal terms, their relative evolution reflects a shift in market interest towards tangible assets.

Daan's post concludes: “which clearly shows the real reason for these movements: the depreciation of fiat currencies”. This remark reveals growing concern over currency depreciation, and suggests that BTC's relative performance may now be influenced by macroeconomic arbitrages rather than crypto-specific dynamics.

While technical signals recall the dark hours of 2022, Bitcoin investor morale is falling due to fears of a shutdown in the United States. Between macroeconomic tensions and bearish indicators, the market remains suspended on the confirmation, or not, of a new decline cycle.