Bitcoin, proudly displaying a price above $105,000, seems to want to prove that it still has something under the hood. However, its legendary volatility keeps it constantly on a roller coaster, preventing any lasting stabilization. Between tightening margins and the potential for increased volatility, on-chain analysis perhaps heralds an explosive rebound. Let's decipher this explosive cocktail where technique and instinct intersect in the crypto market.
Bitcoin: an intriguing price range
For two months, the price of bitcoin has oscillated between $90,000 and $110,000, a variation of only 19%. According to Glassnode, such tightening of fluctuations was only observed five times since 2019. And each time, he announced a large-scale movement.
In October 2023, a similar range led to an increase of 40% in two months. If history repeats itself, investors could see a similar scenario.
Currently, nearly 20% of bitcoins in circulation have an acquisition cost close to the spot price. This concentration further tightens the volatility elastic.
Some highlights:
- In December 2023, Bitcoin rose from $30,000 to $42,000;
- Bollinger bands, used by traders, indicate dormant volatility;
- The last tightening of the bands dates from January 2024, a prelude to major tremors.
For Matthew Hyland, renowned analyst, “thehe three-day Bollinger bands are the tightest since last January. »
This apparent calm may be hiding a storm in the crypto market.
Crypto trading: a domino effect to come?
Technical data is not enough to explain the feverish wait of investors. According to Glassnode :
“ When supply is concentrated around a given price, small movements can cause large waves. »
With fluctuating investor profitabilitythe domino effect could transform slight adjustments into a stock market hurricane.
Other indicators support this hypothesis. In January 2025, margin tightening reached record levels, signaling the potential for an imminent breakout. Bollinger bands and on-chain analysis announce a decisive movement on the horizonn, whether towards a peak or an abyssal plunge.
Experienced traders now juggle strategy and instinct. Should we accumulate or reduce risks? The answer lies in the next ups and downs of an always unpredictable crypto market. One thing is certain, patience is a precious quality in this tense climate.
Furthermore, according to Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, $700,000 per bitcoin is possible as soon as the macroeconomic conditions he mentioned in Davos are met. In the meantime, the crypto market remains an area of daring.
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