While the ICP index comes out above analyst forecasts, the Fed (Federal Reserve) finds itself under pressure and could raise rates in December. A direct macroeconomic threat that places bitcoin under extreme tension around the key level of $74,000.
In brief
- October CPI inflation climbed to +0.4% over one month (Core CPI at +0.3%), clearly exceeding market expectations.
- Expectations of a Fed rate hike at the December meeting soar to 97%.
- Bitcoin is hovering nervously around $74,200, threatening to give away psychological support at $74,000 if the liquidation wave intensifies.
US inflation surprises the market
The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report had the effect of a cold shower on Wall Street as well as in the crypto ecosystem. This, days after Michael Saylor showed 400 years of dominance for bitcoin. With an increase of 0.4% MoM against 0.3% expected (and a Core CPI anchored at 0.3%), inflation shows persistent resilience which thwarts the plans of central bankers.
This persistence removes the chances of a short-term rate cut and strengthens the Fed’s rate hike in December. Governor Christopher Waller has also warned that an increase of 25 basis points is now the central scenario for December. Some experts do not rule out the hypothesis of a more aggressive tightening of 50 basis points if the indicators do not weaken.
Impact of inflation and Fed rate review in December
This reversal of monetary anticipation caused an immediate reallocation of capital towards the dollar and bond yields, to the detriment of risky assets.
| Indicator / Market | Before CPI publication | Post-publication ICP & Fed Speech | Impact on crypto |
| Likelihood of Fed rate hike (Dec.) | ~50% (Uncertainty) | 85% to 97% (Almost certainty) | Immediate downward pressure on the market. |
| Bitcoin Price (BTC) | ~$75,500 | $74,200 (Increased pressure) | Direct test of the major support zone. |
| Bitcoin Spot ETF Feed | Moderate entries | Selling pressure and withdrawals | Temporary withdrawal of institutional actors. |
| US 10-year bond yields | ~4.7% | Rising tension (~4.9%) | Reinforced attractiveness of risk-free rate products. |
Will bitcoin hold its line of defense?
Currently stabilized around $74,200, the crypto queen is bearing the brunt of the firmness of the American central bank and the ambient nervousness. For many observers of the ecosystem, this fall synchronized with the publication of macroeconomic data is not a simple coincidence. But, of an orchestrated strategy to rescue leveraged positions and cause panic, as Gordon Gekko points out on X:
Manipulation at its peak. They drop the price of Bitcoin after the release of inflation data to cause panic and throw you out. Fortunately, we were prepared for it as I warned you last week. Now, are you ready for what’s next?
If selling pressure forces bitcoin to break its support at $74,000, the market could be exposed to a further correction towards $73,600. On the other hand, if the current zone manages to resist despite rate pressure and market tremors, the pioneer crypto will send a signal of remarkable strength.
Caught between overheating US inflation and the imminent threat of a Fed rate hike, Bitcoin (BTC) is in the danger zone. Between economic panic and opportunity for accumulation, the battle for $74,000 promises to be decisive for the rest of the cycle. In your opinion, is this market manipulation or a real bearish signal for the end of the year?
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