The month of October starts on a lukewarm note for bitcoin, which, at $63,110, is struggling to begin the much-hoped-for “Uptober” rally. However, despite this lull, there is no shortage of bullish prospects. Indeed, macroeconomic factors and market trends suggest that bitcoin could hold surprises for investors this month. Let's explore five reasons why October might just be a strategic time to buy Bitcoin.
External factors: Trump, China and interest rates
Recent polls put Donald Trump in the lead in the 2024 US elections, with a 54.1% probability of victory.
Trump has already positioned himself favorably towards cryptocurrencies, and his return to power could transform the landscape for bitcoin. According to Bernstein analysts, if Trump wins the election, bitcoin could reach $90,000, a figure that would make more than one investor dream.
This political support would offer a significant boost, especially in a context where the regulation of cryptos in the United States is closely monitored.
The Chinese government, according to sources such as CNBC, is preparing to inject between $282.8 and $424.2 billion into the economy to stimulate growth.
Such a stimulus package could indirectly benefit bitcoin, particularly if Chinese investors, encouraged by monetary easing, allocate part of their funds to cryptocurrencies.
Such actions could strengthen demand for Bitcoin, driving prices higher. Indeed, China's impact on the market is well known; it has already proven its influence in major fluctuations in Bitcoin.
Although the US Federal Reserve recently reduced interest rate cut expectations by 50 basis points, a 25 point cut remains plausible.
Lower interest rates would increase liquidity, prompting some investors to take more risks and turn to assets like Bitcoin.
In this context, each announcement from the Fed becomes crucial: the slightest nuance in speeches on rates can have a significant effect on the volatility of Bitcoin.
Developments specific to the bitcoin market
Bitcoin's halving mechanism remains a major catalyst for its price. Historically, bitcoin tends to experience significant gains around 150 to 170 days after this event.
With last April's halving, many are anticipating a new wave of increases. The famous trader Peter Brandt even estimates that BTC could reach $135,000 in the coming months.
This prediction, while bold, fits into a pattern seen in previous halvings, where limited supply of Bitcoin drives up demand.
October is known to be one of the best performing months for Bitcoin, with average gains often in excess of 20%. Despite a hesitant start, previous Octobers have seen unanticipated rallies propel BTC to new highs.
If this trend continues, Bitcoin could surpass its record level of $73,000 and reach new highs. The crypto market has this ability to surprise, and investors are carefully scanning signals for the opportunity for a late rally this month. During this time, Ripple supports Kamala Harris.
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