Elon Musk predicts a sharp drop in the weight of government contracts in SpaceX’s revenues. On November 6, 2026, the billionaire announced that the American state would represent less than 10% of turnover in the fourth quarter, then less than 5% within a year. This share still reached 16.6% in the third quarter. The expansion of artificial intelligence activities largely explains this development.
In brief
- Elon Musk predicts less than 5% revenue from the US government by November 2027.
- Government contracts represented 16.6% of SpaceX’s revenue in the third quarter of 2026.
- Anthropic would have become SpaceX’s largest individual customer, with 34.5% of quarterly revenues.
SpaceX wants to bring public revenues below 5%
Elon Musk announced his new forecasts Friday, November 6 on X. This statement comes as SpaceX is rapidly developing its commercial activities, particularly after its merger with Anthropic in the field of artificial intelligence.
The announced change directly concerns the company’s finances. By 2025, government contracts represented around 20% of its revenue. Their weight fell to 16.6% in the third quarter of 2026. Musk now expects less than 10% in the last quarter of the year and less than 5% twelve months later.
SpaceX, however, still works with several federal agencies. NASA notably uses its Crew Dragon capsules to transport astronauts to the International Space Station. The American Department of Defense also entrusts it with launches of military satellites.
The company also participates in the Artemis program, with its Starship spacecraft intended to transport astronauts to the lunar surface. These contracts do not disappear. The announced drop concerns their share in total revenues, not necessarily the amounts paid by Washington.
In the third quarter, SpaceX had approximately $14.6 billion in revenue. The 16.6% allocated to federal contracts represents nearly $2.42 billion. A year earlier, the corresponding proportion reached 23.9% of a turnover of around 5.6 billion, or $1.34 billion. The income concerned therefore increased in absolute value over this period, despite their lower relative weight.
AI now brings in more than space activities
Financial results released in October show the extent of SpaceX’s transformation. In the third quarter of 2026, its turnover increased by 161% year-on-year, from $5.6 billion to $14.6 billion.
Net profit reached $4.4 billion. The Super Intelligence division, focused on artificial intelligence and IT infrastructure, generated approximately $7.56 billion in revenue. Connectivity services, including Starlink, represent 5.2 billion. Traditional space activities bring in around 1.8 billion.
AI now takes first place. This growth is mainly based on the rental of computing power to large technology companies. SpaceX notably operates data centers in Memphis, Tennessee, where demand for computing capacity continues to grow.
The company is also working on spatial computing infrastructures for future AI needs. Anthropic occupies an important place in this activity. According to Bloomberg, the company behind Claude would have become SpaceX’s first individual customer. The financial documents mention an unidentified customer representing 34.5% of quarterly revenue, or about $5 billion. Bloomberg identifies it as Anthropic.
The group thus has a major commercial outlet for its IT capabilities. For SpaceX, the growth of AI activities makes it possible to mechanically reduce the proportion of revenues coming from Washington.
One dependency on government replaced by another?
Weight reduction public contracts could give SpaceX more financial flexibility. The company would maintain its business with NASA and the Pentagon while deriving most of its growth from commercial customers.
However, it must manage a new concentration of its income. With 34.5% of revenue attributed to a single client, Anthropic is now larger than government contracts combined.
This situation exposes SpaceX to the business decisions and IT needs of its partner. Computing contracts can bring in several billion dollars, but their renewal depends in particular on demand, financial conditions and the investments necessary to maintain the infrastructure.
SpaceX nevertheless retains other sources of revenue, particularly Starlink and commercial launches. The results of the next quarters will make it possible to measure their progress. For Elon Musk, the announced objective remains ambitious: to bring Washington’s contribution below 5% by November 2027, while activities linked to AI continue to grow.
SpaceX will also have to develop its own products, particularly after the acquisition of Cursor and the tensions that emerged between OpenAI and Anthropic. The company is gaining financial autonomy from the American government, but its growth now depends more on a few large technology clients.
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