Anthropic wants to maintain its IPO despite the fall in technology stocks, but its hoped-for valuation has already fallen from around 2000 to 1500 billion dollars. This change does not only reflect a less enthusiastic market: investors are starting to compare Claude’s growth to the colossal cost of the infrastructure needed to support it.
In brief
- Anthropic maintains its IPO plan despite the fall in technology stocks.
- Its expected valuation increases from 2000 to around 1500 billion dollars.
- Wall Street is worried about its slowing growth and the colossal cost of AI infrastructure.
- Anthropic’s financial commitments, close to $895 billion, reinforce its need for capital.
- October revenues could play a decisive role in setting the IPO price.
AI: Wall Street no longer pays for growth without looking at the bill
The original schedule called for launching the investor roadshow during the week of November 9, then listing before Thanksgiving. After the $3.2 trillion fall suffered by Wall Street, however, some investors requested a more attractive valuation and considered a postponement.
Anthropic would ultimately like to continue the operation. The company would aim between 80 and 100 billion dollars in capital raised, for a valuation of between 1,250 and 1,750 billion. The equilibrium point discussed remains close to 1,500 billion dollars, significantly below the 2,000 billion dollars still mentioned a few weeks earlier.
Multiple numbers explain this quick reassessment:
- Quarterly revenue reached approximately $17 billion;
- Its sequential growth slowed to 47%, from 144% in the second quarter;
- Third-quarter net loss was $23.29 billion;
- The operating loss reached $567 million;
- Computing and infrastructure commitments approach $895.4 billion;
- Nearly $69.8 billion will have to be committed over the next twelve months;
- Anthropic incurred $5 billion in additional IT costs during the quarter.
Growth remains exceptional. Anthropic had more than 11,900 customers each generating at least $100,000 in annual revenue at the end of September, up from about $1,500 at the end of 2025. However, the question asked by Wall Street has changed. It is no longer enough to demonstrate that sales are increasing, because you must explain how much each additional dollar costs.
$895 billion in commitments turn IPO into necessity
Anthropic depends on Amazon, Google and other partners for access to the chips, data centers and electricity needed for its models. These groups are at the same time investors, capacity suppliers, distributors and potential competitors.
This interdependence increases financial risk. Part of the promised infrastructure is based on financing or guarantees obtained by Anthropic partners. If credit becomes more expensive, some projects could be delayed, reduced or renegotiated.
The company recognizes this in its stock market file. If funding becomes unavailable or more expensive, planned capacities could “be delayed, reassessed, reduced or not delivered”.
This clarification changes the nature of the IPO. The operation does not only serve to provide an exit to early investors or to give public value to the shares. According to on-chain data, it must provide Anthropic with enough liquidity to finance its expansion without returning to the market too quickly.
Investors therefore have an unusual balance of power. They know that the company needs capital, that its liabilities are considerable and that AI stocks have just suffered a violent correction. They can demand a greater discount without necessarily calling into question Claude’s potential.
“These companies will be part of the future”estimates Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments. However, he expects “a certain step back” after the long rise in private valuations.
October figure can now decide the price
Investors are still waiting for October sales figures, left blank in the latest version of the introductory document. This data should show whether the slowdown in the third quarter was temporary or whether it heralds a more lasting normalization of growth.
The moment is delicate. Markets no longer only sanction loss-making companies. They also penalize companies that finance their data centers with debt, chip suppliers and energy producers exposed to reduced investments in AI.
Anthropic could nevertheless choose to move quickly with a prudent price. A successful listing would give it access to institutional investors, index funds and a listed trading currency to finance future acquisitions. A delay would prolong the uncertainty and could reinforce the idea that the private market has valued AI labs too generously.
The issue therefore goes beyond Anthropic. Its IPO is expected to establish the first true public benchmark for a developer of cutting-edge AI models. An operation close to 1,500 billion dollars would still validate an exceptional valuation, but it would also confirm that investors have subtracted around 500 billion dollars from the initial ambitions.
The litmus test will not only be the price set before listing. It will be necessary to observe whether the stock holds up next, when investors compare each quarter the growth in revenues with the billions spent on computing power. The race for AI is thus entering a new phase: one where growth must finally prove that it can finance its own cost.
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