The management company VanEck puts forward an ambitious outlook for the digital asset market. In an analysis signed by Mathew Sigel and his team, his specialists envisage a price of $500,000 for bitcoin by 2030-2035. Their scenario is based on a direct comparison with the total value of gold. It assumes that the first cryptocurrency is gaining ground with investors and institutions. This projection, however, falls within a horizon of five to ten years, according to VanEck today.
In brief
- VanEck envisions bitcoin at $500,000 between 2030 and 2035.
- This projection is based on a capitalization representing 50% of that of gold.
- The company believes institutional adoption and younger investors will support this progression.
- In the longer term, VanEck even mentions a scenario of 3 million dollars by 2050.
VanEck links bitcoin to gold capitalization
To construct this estimate, VanEck analysts take gold as a point of comparison. They estimate that the bitcoin market could reach half the capitalization of the precious metal. This share would represent around 14,000 billion dollars, according to the figures put forward in their analysis. At this level, the price of the digital asset could be around $500,000.
VanEck estimates the progression needed from the current price to be approximately 5.6 times. This calculation allows the team to situate its scenario over a period of five to ten years. Rather, they envisage a gradual evolution, linked to the place that the asset could take compared to gold. The deadline of 2030 to 2035 thus provides a framework for this estimate.
The report considers that the market could be at the start of a new growth cycle. According to the indicators monitored by the team, the bullish phase has not yet reached maturity. It notably outperformed gold and the S&P 500 in the third quarter. Over this period, its price increased by more than 40%.
This performance fuels the idea of a possible return of bitcoin above $100,000. However, VanEck distinguishes this perspective from his long-term goal. It assumes that the digital asset continues to gain importance over the years. The comparison with gold is therefore mainly used to measure the potential of bitcoin in the medium and long term.
Public debt and devaluation: two factors favorable to Bitcoin
VanEck also places his forecast in a context of increasing public debt. According to his analysis, devaluation operations can support demand for assets considered stores of value. Both gold and bitcoin could benefit from this dynamic. However, analysts believe that the flagship cryptocurrency is gradually gaining ground. It attracts the attention of users.
The report particularly highlights the role of young consumers in emerging markets. Their adoption could strengthen the presence of this asset among new generations of investors. VanEck adds a second driver: continued accumulation by international financial institutions. These purchases could expand the holder base and support demand over time.
This combination forms the basis of the five or ten year projection. If these trends continue, bitcoin’s market share could reach 50% of gold’s. VanEck associates this hypothesis with a valuation close to $14 trillion. The $500,000 price tag comes from that comparison, rather than a simple extrapolation of recent moves.
VanEck talks up to $3 million for 2050
The analysts extend their thinking beyond 2035. Their long-term scenario suggests a potential price of $3 million by 2050. For 2035, they mention a much wider range, between $300,000 and $5 million. These levels rely on maintaining institutional adoption and intergenerational wealth transfer. They describe market hypotheses and not guaranteed objectives.
The trajectory will therefore depend on several developments which remain to be confirmed. Adoption by younger generations, institutional purchases and the place of gold in portfolios will weigh on this scenario. VanEck presents $500,000 as a possible medium-term target, with a deadline between 2030 and 2035. Until then, performance gaps and investment flows will make it possible to monitor the progress of this thesis. The comparison with gold provides a benchmark, but does not alone determine the future price.
Ultimately, VanEck’s projection is based on a gradual rapprochement between the value of the digital market and that of gold. If individual and institutional adoption continues, the threshold of $500,000 could become possible over the chosen horizon. Conversely, a slowdown in these trends would limit the scope of this hypothesis. BTC will therefore have to confirm, over the coming years, its capacity to capture a growing share of global demand.
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