Bitcoin: The price rises to $81,500 after the American economic figures

Bitcoin briefly returned to $81,000 after the publication of US PCE inflation, in line with expectations. Behind this limited rebound, however, historical data shows that this indicator rarely gives a lasting direction to the crypto market.

The PCE reassures without really improving the monetary scenario

The PCE price index increased by 0.5% in September and by 3.6% year-on-year, after 3.4% in August. Excluding food and energy, core inflation reached 0.3% over one month and 3.1% over one year. All four results match economists’ forecasts, sparing the market an immediate unpleasant surprise.

Bitcoin reacted by temporarily returning above $80,000, with a peak near $81,000. This movement nevertheless looks more like a relief than a bullish validation: inflation is accelerating and remains significantly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

The main elements of the report erect thus a less favorable picture than a simple rebound in BTC could suggest:

• Annual PCE inflation increases from 3.4% to 3.6%;
• Underlying PCE accelerates from 3% to 3.1% year-on-year;
• Nominal spending increases by 0.5%, but almost stagnates in real terms;
• Real disposable income fell by 0.3% over the month;
• The household savings rate falls to 3.8%.

This combination puts the Fed in an uncomfortable situation. Prices accelerate while inflation-adjusted purchasing power weakens. An increase in rates would help combat inflation, but would also risk putting more pressure on consumption and assets sensitive to financial conditions.

The market now evaluates about 85% chance of a rate hike in December. Such a scenario would keep the remuneration of the dollar and short-term bonds at a high level, mechanically reducing the relative attractiveness of bitcoin.

PCE announcements give bitcoin almost no advantage

The immediate reaction of BTC does not allow us to predict its trajectory over the coming days. A study of 114 PCE publications since 2017 watch that bitcoin varies on average by 0.63% during the first hour, or only 1.2 times its usual movement over a comparable period.

The direction is even less conclusive. BTC ends the first hour up in only 42% of cases. After a day, this proportion rises to 53%with a median performance limited to 0.09%. In other words, the chances of an increase remain close to a random drawing.

The first movement also turns around in 34% of publications before the fourth hour. This frequency explains why a surge above $81,000 alone does not constitute a reliable technical signal.

The previous post provides a telling example. On September 30, a lower-than-expected PCE sent bitcoin up 1.5% in the first hour. Twenty-four hours later, that entire lead was gone. BTC then lost 0.56% over seven days.

The new reading angle therefore consists of considering the PCE as a volatility trigger, and not as a directional indicator. The evolution of bond yields after digesting the numbers matters more than the first bitcoin candle.

The $80,000 threshold now depends on real rates

The report published Thursday does not create any new monetary scenario: it confirms the one that operators had already integrated. The BTC rebound comes precisely from this lack of surprise. To turn this relief into a lasting recovery, the market would need a decline in rate expectations or actual bond yields.

Conversely, a rise in yields would reinforce the pressure around $80,000. Investors can earn higher returns on assets deemed less risky, while bitcoin distributes no income. Its price then depends more on incoming flows and the willingness of operators to accept volatility.

The next decisive statistic may therefore not be the PCE itself. Jobs numbers, CPI inflation and Fed statements will determine whether a December rate hike becomes almost certain. The October PCE report, expected on November 25, will then verify whether the September acceleration was temporary.

Bitcoin remains at the psychological threshold of $80,000 for the moment, but the rebound does not change its main obstacle: inflation at 3.6% leaves little room for the Fed to ease financial conditions.