11 Billion Bitcoin Options Expire Friday: Will $79,500 Support Hold?

Around $11 billion in bitcoin options expire this Friday, October 30 on Deribit, two days after the Fed status quo. At the time of writing this article, the BTC price is hovering around $80,000 and the $79,500 zone serves as a test: will it hold when these contracts disappear?

What expires Friday: $11 billion in bitcoin options on Deribit

Deribit is the leading crypto options platform. Friday at 08:00 UTC (9:00 a.m. in Paris), around 135,000 BTC of contracts will be settled there. This represents $10.9 billion in nominal value, according to data relayed by InsigtX. Estimates nevertheless vary from 10.7 to 12.2 billion depending on the monitoring tools.

This monthly deadline weighs about a third of the open interestthat is to say all of Deribit’s still open contracts. An option gives the right to buy (call) or sell (put) bitcoin at a price fixed in advance. The put/call ratio is around 0.53. Furthermore, calls dominate with around 89,000 contracts compared to 47,000 puts.

Certainly, this imbalance looks bullish. However, it must be qualified. The largest call positions relate to strikes of $90,000, $95,000 and $100,000. With bitcoin at $80,000, these contracts therefore have every chance of expiring worthless.

Max pain at $78,000: a benchmark, not a price prediction for bitcoin

The “max pain” refers to the price at which buyers of bitcoin options, taken collectively, would cash out the least at expiration. For this Friday, October 30, 2026, crypto analysts place it above all at $78,000 with a range of $76,000 to $79,000.

However, this level is not a course objective. He recalls that it results from a calculation on open interest. It therefore does not indicate that bitcoin will go to it. Its interest lies elsewhere: it is located below the current price, where the hedges of market makers are also found. The sensitivity of these hedges is precisely between $75,000 and $82,000. Which can amplify the bitcoin price movements in this area.

$79,500 support: levels to watch in the crypto market

On the graph, the $79,500 support corresponds to the bottom of a zone ranging from $79,500 to $80,500. Just below, $79,221 marks the October 24 low. It held during three new declines this week. Next comes the bread max at $78,000, then the $76,264–76,478 zone which combines the September 2 low and the 200-day moving average.

Above, resistance lies between $81,300 and $82,800. Santiment envisages:

• a return to around $82,500–84,000 if bitcoin stays above $80,000;
• a downside risk towards $75,000 below $79,000.

Bitfinex, meanwhile, estimates the implied options range at $77,800–83,800.

In both cases, one signal remains ambiguous: the DVOL volatility index of Deribit. It fell from 38 to 36 in two days. This means that the bitcoin traders pay a little less for their protection, despite the size of the deadline.

After expiration: midterms, position rollover and Fed

Once the contracts are settled, the associated coverages no longer need to be maintained. This does not guarantee a reduction in volatility. In this sense, ETHNews emphasizes that traders can carry over their positions to November contracts. Some bitcoin options sellers could therefore wait for the American elections on November 3.

Another deadline to watch closely: the Fed meeting on December 8 and 9. Already, several specialized media are discussing a high probability of rate hikes : between 80 and 84%. On October 16, it collapsed to 13% on Polymarket.

Either way, Friday’s BTC options expiration weighs heavily in volume. The test is now between $78,000 and $80,500, a level to watch closely in order to anticipate bitcoin’s next dynamic.