American bitcoin ETFs have just had two difficult weeks, with nearly $910 million in net outflows. At the same time, the price of BTC has fallen back below the estimated average purchase price of their investors. Enough to test their patience, while the month of October, although initially promising, sinks into the red.
In brief
- US bitcoin ETFs saw $228.6 million in net outflows last week, following $681.1 million the previous week.
- Since the start of the month, their balance sheet shows approximately $615 million in net withdrawals.
- On Friday, bitcoin was trading around $81,590, below ETF holders’ estimated average purchase cost of close to $82,300.
Bitcoin ETF, almost a billion dollars withdrawn in two weeks
Investors continue to withdraw their money from US bitcoin ETFs. Last week, these funds lost $228.6 million, after a first week marked by 681.1 million net outflows.
The details of the sessions, however, show some attempts at a rebound. As of Tuesday, funds attracted $175.7 million. On Thursday, they recorded a slight positive balance of 5.1 million. But on Wednesday, withdrawals reached $261.4 million, erasing some of those inflows.
As a result, October is now negative at around $615 million, after the month started on a positive note with 293 million admissions. The reversal particularly accelerated on October 7, when investors withdrew $484.9 million in a single session.
However, some analysts continue to envision BTC progressing towards $87,000 or even $90,000, thanks to the formation of an ascending triangle. However, ETF outflows are a reminder that not all investors share this optimism.
A threshold that could weaken investors
The BTC price adds difficulty. On Thursday, it briefly fell below $80,000 before rising again. As of Friday, it was hovering around $81,590, still below the estimated average purchase price of ETF holders, located near $82,300 according to Nexo.
This level does not constitute an absolute technical threshold. However, it remains important for investor morale: when their investment goes into the red, some prefer to sell rather than risk additional losses.
The pressure has also spread to derivatives markets. According to CoinGlass datanearly $950 million in leveraged positions were liquidated in 24 hours, about 90% of which were bullish bets.
Inflation and rates, a less favorable context for BTC
The economic situation also complicates the outlook. In September, US inflation reached 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.6%. This surprise reignited concerns about interest rates.
Higher bond yields make traditional investments more attractive and can draw capital away from risky assets like bitcoin.
The results nevertheless remain positive in the long term. Since their launch in January 2024, US bitcoin ETFs have accumulated approximately $57.3 billion in net inflows, for nearly $104 billion in assets. The Ether and Solana ETFs also ended this period in the red.
What happens next will therefore depend on the reaction of investors. Some may sell to limit their losses, while others will take advantage of the decline to buy. Everything will depend in particular on the evolution of inflation and rate expectations.
Maximize your Tremplin.io experience with our ‘Read to Earn’ program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
