As October approaches, the Crypto market revives a now familiar mechanics: the effect “Uptuber”. Behind this term that has become a seasonal mantra, recurring data intrigues analysts. Indeed, for several years, October has established itself as one of the highest months for Bitcoin, often after a month of September in slight rebound. This scheme, both statistical and psychological, shapes investor anticipations and acts as a potential trigger in a context already marked by a gradual recovery of the market.
In short
- October has become a strategic benchmark for Crypto investors, with a history of increases in Bitcoin.
- This September already displays a positive performance, reviving expectations around a new “Uptuber” rally.
- Data from previous years confirm a strong correlation between a bullish September and a two -digit October.
- The Uptuber effect is also based on a psychological dynamic, where collective anticipation can trigger a real increase.
The recurrence of a bullish phenomenon
While a fractal model worries analysts, “Uptuber” is not a marketing concept, but a statistical observation that returns year after year. Thus, each month of September fenced in the green was historically followed by a double -digit month of October on the price of Bitcoin.
In 2023, the increase of +3.91 % in September preceded a spectacular leap of +28.52 % in October. In 2024, a performance of +7.29 % in September was followed by a gain of +10.76 % the following month.
This year, with an increase already estimated at +8 % in the month of September, market observers are preparing for a similar scenario. Such constancy has convinced many analysts that markets anticipate and act according to this trend.
This phenomenon would be explained by a market dynamic where collective anticipation plays a driving role. The more the actors expect an increase in October, the more they adopt positions that strengthen this probability. Concretely, data reveal a recurring sequence:
- September 2023: +3.91 %, +28.52 % in October 2023;
- September 2024: +7.29 %, +10.76 % in October 2024;
- September 2025 (in progress): +8 % estimated, anticipation of a Uptuber Haussier.
It should be noted that these increases occur in a strategic positioning climate, both by individuals and by institutional investors, mechanically amplifying demand.
Thus, the prospect of a new Uptuber is part of a market logic where investors' expectations become full -fledged price engines.
Halving, Fed, ETF: the structural catalysts of the Uptuber
Beyond the historical cyclicity, this year's uptober is integrated into a context fundamentally different from its predecessors. The halving for April 2024, which has half the award of mining specialists, caused a tender shock.
Historically, the year following a halving has always coincided with a period of strong growth. This was the case in 2017 and 2021, where Bitcoin went from a few thousand dollars to $ 20,000 and almost $ 69,000 respectively. This rarefaction of the newly issued BTC, combined with stable or even growing demand, creates a mechanical bullish pressure on the price of the assets.
In addition, recent macroeconomic elements reinforce this dynamic. This month, the American federal reserve has dropped for a rate of 25 basis points, a gesture interpreted as favorable to risky assets. The drop in rates immediately propelled the BTC to $ 118,000, stressing the direct impact of monetary policy on the Crypto market.
Finally, the institutional craze reaches an unprecedented level. ETF Bitcoin Spot listed in the United States experienced an outstanding outstanding in September, with records on the first half of the month. These American ETFs now hold more than 1.3 million BTCs, a volume that largely exceeds the current production of minors. This disproportion between supply and institutional demand reinforces the hypothesis of a bullish structural imbalance, which could be fully expressed during the month of October.
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