The rise of artificial intelligence raises questions about investments, public debt and financial markets. For Arthur Hayes, investment director at Maelstrom, the bursting of this bubble could benefit bitcoin. According to him, the rescue plans for the companies concerned would increase the money supply and favor safe haven assets. However, this bullish outlook faces several obstacles, including risks related to quantum computers and capital outflows from US spot ETFs.
In brief
- Arthur Hayes believes the bursting of the AI bubble could trigger bitcoin-friendly financial bailouts.
- An increase in the money supply and inflation could increase the appeal of safe haven assets.
- Fidelity notes a record correlation of 0.6 between bitcoin and US ten-year bond yields in 2026.
- Quantum threat and $228 million outflows from US Bitcoin ETFs limit bullish outlook.
Arthur Hayes anticipates bitcoin rebound after AI bubble
In a recent interview with Luke Martin, Arthur Hayes explained why the bursting of the artificial intelligence bubble could support bitcoin. The head of Maelstrom considers that the expenses incurred in this sector raise questions about its profitability. He also believes that the financial difficulties of large companies could lead Washington to intervene.
Hayes cites in particular Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX, which would benefit from the support of the American government. According to him, these companies do not yet generate sufficient profits to justify their situation. He therefore anticipates support measures if their difficulties worsen. These interventions could change financial conditions and increase the appeal of cryptocurrencies.
In this scenario, the authorities would inject more money to limit the consequences of a crisis. This increase in the money supply could then fuel inflation and reduce purchasing power. Investors would then seek to protect their wealth with assets like gold and bitcoin. Hayes associates this mechanism with currency devaluation, which can favor assets perceived as stores of value.
The market already offers an element of comparison. This week, the price of bitcoin defended $80,000 despite massive sell-offs affecting chipmakers and technology stocks. These sales would have been two to five times greater than those observed on bitcoin. This resistance, however, illustrates a price evolution, without in itself confirming the scenario envisaged by Hayes.
US debt and bond yields reinforce bullish expectations
Arthur Hayes is not the only one to speak of an environment favorable to cryptocurrencies. Ceteris Paribus, director of research at Delphi Research, underlines also the importance of financial flows on the Internet. According to him, debt-related currency depreciation and a possible bailout of the AI sector could fuel capital inflows into bitcoin.
Financial flows on the internet are very positive. The depreciation due to the current debt situation and the AI Ponzi scheme bailout are generating significant BTC flows.
Ceteris Paribus, director of research at Delphi, source: AMBCRYPTO.
The American public debt reaches 40.3 trillion dollars and continues to grow, regardless of which party is in power. A plan to support artificial intelligence companies could further increase this burden. Therefore, investors may be more closely monitoring federal spending and its effects on the value of the currency.
Fidelity relieving also a growing link between bond yields and bitcoin. According to the asset manager, their correlation with ten-year US bonds reached 0.6 in 2026. Over the last two months, yields have increased by 10%, while BTC has gained 30%. These parallel developments fuel the hypothesis of potential support for the market.
If this relationship continues, rising yields could accompany further progress in bitcoin. Fidelity, however, highlights a broader budgetary issue: debt interest could soon become the largest federal expenditure item. In this context, investors could give more importance to alternative stores of value, without this development guaranteeing a lasting increase in prices.
Quantum threat and ETF outflows limit outlook
Despite these arguments, several risks could slow down the progress of bitcoin. Ceteris Paribus believes in particular that advances in artificial intelligence and Google’s progress in quantum computing are accentuating concerns. Ultimately, this technology could weaken certain cryptographic protections and weigh on investor confidence.
The researcher nevertheless considers that monetary depreciation will remain a favorable factor. However, he believes that BTC will no longer be the only store of value sought by investors. According to this analysis, the quantum threat could limit expected gains, even if debt tensions support demand.
The flows of funds traded on the stock exchange also provide a mixed signal. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw an additional $228 million in outflows this week. This is their second consecutive week of withdrawals in October, reflecting less favorable institutional demand in the short term.
However, Glassnode observes a slowdown in profit taking after this weekly capitulation phase. This development could signal the formation of a floor around $80,000. However, it is not enough to sustainably confirm this level.
In the short term, bitcoin will therefore depend on the evolution of financial flows, bond yields and technological risks. A possible rescue of the artificial intelligence sector could support safe-haven assets, but ETF outflows and the quantum threat remain reasons for caution.
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