The web3 and the breath of decentralization that accompanies it is just beginning. Each week, new innovations are emerging, laying the foundations for an unprecedented digital future. Imagine these maturity technologies: they could reshape finance, sport or politics. This is exactly what is played out today with decentralized prediction platforms. Kalshi and Polymarket, two major players in this sector, are now a battle of volumes, regulation and institutional recognition.
In short
- Kalshi captures 62 % of global volumes, compared to only 37 % for Polymarket.
- Polymarket buys QCX for 112 million, in order to legally reintegrate the American market.
- Kalshi diversifies with Robinhood, Solana and Base, extending its sports and e-sport markets.
- Polymarket and Kalshi are targeting respective valuations of 9-10 billion and 5 billion.
Kalshi accelerates, Polymarket is preparing his American return
Kalshi, a platform integrating Grok, currently dominates the prediction markets with 62 % of the world volumes between September 11 and 17. Over this period, its transactions exceeded $ 500 million, for an average open interest of 189 million. Polymarket, with 430 million and 164 million respectively, remains in ambush but loses ground.
The difference is read in user behavior: on Kalshi, the positions are shorter and the exchanges frequent, while Polymarket retains the funds longer.
This short -term domination does not prevent Polymarket from preparing its revenge. Business bought qcx for $ 112 milliona platform regulated by the CFTC, opening the way when it returns to the United States.
This repositioning changes the situation: Kalshi is already recorded as an American Exchange, but Polymarket wants to capitalize on his notoriety acquired during the 2024 election. As theSummary Kalshi CEOTarek Mansour:
It is remarkable to see how fast Kalshi is progressing.
In one year, it went from 3.1 % to 62.2 % of world volume.
Between finance, sport, crypto and culture: diversification as an engine
The future of these markets is no longer limited to the elections. Kalshi relies on an aggressive expansion strategy. Thanks to partnerships with Solana and Base, the platform launched an ecosystem hub intended to finance creators and traders. She has also widened her activities to sport, in particular via a partnership with Robinhood to offer markets on university football and NFL.
Diversification even extends to e-sport, with bets on the FIFA World Cup and the League of Legends World Championship.
Polymarket, for its part, explores other horizons. With Stocktwits, the platform has introduced markets based on the quarterly results of companies. This innovation attracts an audience of traditional investors, which can cover their risks or test the feeling of the market in real time.
The initiative illustrates a strong trend: transforming prediction markets into full -fledged financial instruments, capable of completing the classic tools. As a Bernstein analyst pointed out: prediction platforms become a new interface for information, where Crypto, IA and Finance meet.
Polymarket and Kalshi: billionaires in line with
The rivalry does not stop at the volumes. It is also played on the field of funding. Kalshi raised $ 185 million in June 2025, with the support of paradigm, and would aim for a valuation of 5 billion. Polymarket, even more ambitious, would be under discussion to reach a valuation between 9 and 10 billion.
These figures bear witness to an increasing interest in institutional investors, who see in these platforms an emerging sector at the crossroads of finance and culture.
Some key figures to remember:
- 62 %: current Kalshi market share, compared to 37 % for Polymarket;
- $ 1.3 billion: monthly volumes recorded by Kalshi in September, a record since 2024;
- $ 112 million: Amount paid by Polymarket to buy QCX and reintegrate the American market;
- $ 9 to 10 billion: valuation targeted by Polymarket, compared to 5 billion for Kalshi.
This competition is more than a simple quarrel between platforms: it draws the future of the prediction markets as a full -fledged economic tools.
In a context where decentralized bets are intensifying, Kalshi and Polymarket engage in a duel that goes beyond technological rivalry. Their billionaire ambitions and their constant innovations could lastingly transform the way institutions, investors and individuals apprehend the future.
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