Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence strategist, estimates that bitcoin could fall back towards $10,000 if US stocks lose 20%. Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, rejects this projection and instead places a theoretical floor around $30,000, due to institutional buying and on-chain valuation.
In brief
- Mike McGlone foresees Bitcoin falling to $10,000 if US stocks lose 20% of their value.
- CryptoQuant considers this scenario unlikely and estimates that Bitcoin could find a floor around $30,000.
- Institutional purchases and on-chain data support the thesis of a more resilient market than in previous cycles.
- The two analysts rely on different indicators, but their forecasts remain uncertain in the face of macroeconomic risks.
A fall to $10,000 depends on a stock market crash
Mike McGlone does not present $10,000 as a certain trajectory. His scenario is based on a deep correction in US stocks, which would send bitcoin into a new wave of selling due to its high sensitivity to risky markets.
Several data allow us to evaluate the extent of this hypothesis:
- Bitcoin is moving around $81,000;
- A drop to $10,000 would represent a drop of close to 88%;
- McGlone conditions this level on a 20% decline in US stocks;
- The Nasdaq 100 is about 6.5% below its Oct. 6 high;
- The yield on five-year US bonds is approaching 5%.
The strategist also observes a bearish direction in bitcoin’s 50-week moving average. He compares this pattern to that of 2022 and 2023, when the market was going through a prolonged correction period.
Mike McGlone asserts :
I think bitcoin is heading towards support around $10,000, especially if US stocks correct by 20%.
He believes that bond yields near 5% represent significant competition for bitcoin and gold, two assets that distribute no income.
The hypothesis is not new. McGlone has been talking about a return of BTC to $10,000 for several years.
Earlier in 2026, he also indicated that staying above $75,000 would weaken his scenario. The price remains above this threshold for the moment despite several corrections.
CryptoQuant instead defends a floor at $30,000
Ki Young Ju believes that the current market structure makes a drop to $10,000 extremely unlikely. Its analysis is based on the acquisition cost of investors, flows to ETFs and bitcoins held by companies.
Bitcoin ETFs have reportedly received around $58 billion since their launch. Companies with BTC cash holdings, for their part, hold nearly 1.3 million bitcoins. These purchases created new cost areas that did not exist during previous cycles.
Even in a scenario where these investors sell their positions, Ki Young Ju places the on-chain floor around $30,000. A return to this level would already represent a correction of around 63% compared to the current price.
The manager relies in particular on the MVRV ratio, which compares the market capitalization of bitcoin to its realized capitalization. The latter values each coin at the price of its last transaction on the blockchain and serves as an approximation of the market acquisition cost.
At $10,000, the MVRV would fall close to 0.2, according to Ki Young Ju. However, its lowest level during previous bear markets was around 0.6. McGlone’s scenario would therefore imply an undervaluation three times deeper than the historical lows measured by this indicator.
However, the MVRV does not constitute a guaranteed floor. Forced sales, a liquidity crisis or a major regulatory shock could produce an unprecedented situation. The $30,000 level also remains an estimate, not automatic protection.
Two opposing models facing the same macroeconomic risk
The disagreement is mainly due to the data favored by each analyst. McGlone starts from traditional markets, bond rates and the correlation between bitcoin and stocks. Ki Young Ju focuses on capital flows, acquisition cost and holder behavior.
CryptoQuant currently considers the market to be in an initial bullish phase. Its Bull Score Index went from 20 at the end of July to 90 at the end of September, before remaining around 80. The whales began to accumulate again, with 3.03 million BTC held outside of platforms and mining pools.
“Whales have moved from selling to accumulating, ETFs are long again, and the largest borrowers are getting liquidity for their bitcoins instead of selling”explains Ki Young Ju. He considers this behavior characteristic of the start of a bullish cycle.
The market nevertheless remains exposed to decisions by the Federal Reserve and a possible correction on Wall Street. A 20% decline in stocks has yet to occur, meaning the main condition of McGlone’s scenario is not met.
The levels of 10,000 and 30,000 dollars should therefore not be read as precise objectives. They represent the results of two models based on different assumptions, neither of which can confidently predict the next bottom of the bitcoin price.
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