Bitcoin came close to $80,000 on Thursday, before rebounding above $82,000. If buyers have managed to defend this key threshold, Glassnode nevertheless notes a sign of fragility: the purchase orders which support the price are becoming rarer below this symbolic bar. A situation that deserves attention, while tensions over American inflation are still weighing on the markets.
In brief
- On Thursday, bitcoin touched $79,800, exhausting some of the buy orders positioned at $80,000 on Binance. New demands then propelled its price to $82,634.
- According to Glassnode, there are fewer buy orders below $80,000, which could weaken the next rebound.
- Position liquidations accompanied the movement, while American wholesale prices increased by 6.3% year-on-year.
At $80,000, buyers are holding on, but their reserve is diminishing
The day before, the market analysis already highlighted the central role of the $80,000 threshold. On Thursday, Binance’s order book confirmed its importance.
Before 1 p.m., bitcoin was trading between $80,500 and $81,900, supported by a significant volume of buy orders at $80,000. Then the price slipped to $79,800, putting a strain on that reserve.
About twenty minutes later, Glassnode spotted the appearance of new buy orders just below this threshold. Buyers then strengthened their presence, allowing bitcoin to rise to $82,634. In the evening, the price found new support around $82,000.
However, Glassnode highlights an important point: even though buyers have defended $80,000, orders available below this level remain fewer than before. In other words, the next pullback could encounter less support.
Liquidations fuel rebound, despite economic tensions
Movements on derivatives markets also explain part of this rise. The decline caused approximately $930 million in liquidations, including $780 million in bullish positions. Then, the rebound led to the liquidation of $53 million in short positions.
These forced buybacks can accelerate an increase, but they do not guarantee its continuation. At the same time, the American economic context continues to fuel concerns.
US wholesale prices rose 6.3% year-on-year, after the consumer price index was released at its highest level in four months. For her part, Beth Hammack, president of the Cleveland Fed, raised the possibility of a firmer response to inflation.
Investors are also awaiting the next statements from the chairman of the Federal Reserve. At the same time, US ETFs backed by bitcoin and ether saw $391 million in outflows in a single session.
How high can bitcoin go?
Prediction markets provide insight into investor expectations. At the start of the session, bettors estimated the probability of a close above $80,000 at 94.8% and that of a price above $82,000 at 53.5%.
By mid-morning, these odds had climbed to 97.2% and 68.5%, while the threshold of $84,000 still only convinces around 4% of bettors.
In the longer term, expectations remain divided. The annual market, which represents nearly $76 million in volume, assigns a 38.5% chance of a rise to $95,000 before Dec. 31, compared to a 37.5% chance of a fall to $70,000.
Willy Woo is nevertheless more optimistic. According to him, bitcoin has already absorbed a significant part of its correction, even as the stock markets set new records.
The threshold of $80,000 therefore resisted for the first time. But the question remains: will buyers have enough reserves to defend this level during the next pullback? The answer will mainly depend on the actual evolution of orders on the market.
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