Citigroup revised its 12-month target for bitcoin from $82,000 to $113,000 and for Ether from $2,240 to $3,028. In 2026, this third revision is mainly based on the return of capital in ETFs, even if the objective set for bitcoin remains lower than that set by the banking institution at the start of the year.
In brief
- Citi raises its 12-month target for bitcoin to $113,000 and that of Ether to $3,028.
- The bank justifies this change by the return of ETF flows, a more favorable macro context and more sustained crypto activity.
- This is the third revision of its forecasts in 2026, after two downward adjustments.
- US Bitcoin ETFs saw several billion dollars of inflows in September, reinforcing Citi’s story.
- However, the bank remains more cautious than at the start of the year, while the American regulatory file remains uncertain.
Citi’s bitcoin forecasts rise with ETFs
Citi mentioned more sustained activity in the crypto market, a more favorable macroeconomic environment and the resumption of subscriptions in ETFs, in a note dated September 30.
The banking institution now anticipates slow, yet more steady, inflows as financial advisors and brokers increase their allocations. Here are the main hypotheses announced:
- Bitcoin’s 12-month target goes from $82,000 to $113,000;
- The forecast for Ether increases from 2240 to 3028 dollars;
- Citi expects $5 billion in inflows over the next twelve months;
- The bank attributes its revision to ETF flows, market activity and the macroeconomic environment;
- Currently, bitcoin is trading around $86,300 and ether near $2,750.
Analysts led by Alex Saunders explain :
The increase comes from the three components of our process: activity, macroeconomics and ETF flows.
These targets represent Citi’s estimates, and not levels that the two cryptos will necessarily be able to reach.
Citi revises its bitcoin forecast for the third time
This September increase represents a change from July. However, this is not a return to the expectations of the beginning of the years. The bank had already modified its forecasts twice in the face of fluctuations in flows and the economic context.
| Review date | Bitcoin at 12 months | Ether at 12 months | Orientation |
| March 2026 | $112,000 versus $143,000 | $3175 versus $4304 | Drop |
| July 2026 | $82,000 | $2240 | New drop |
| September 2026 | $113,000 | $3028 | Recovery |
Citi is therefore not becoming more optimistic than at the start of the year. Thus, its new target for bitcoin exceeds that of March by 1000 dollars, nevertheless remains 30,000 dollars lower than the old forecast of 143,000 dollars. As for Ether, the expected $3,028 also remains below the $3,175 forecast under the March revision.
The bank had cut its assumption of 12-month ETF net inflows to zero in July, from $10 billion previously. Such a hypothesis now goes back to 5 billion, which justifies part of the September reversal.
ETF flows support Citi’s bitcoin forecast
THE data provided by Farside have confirmed a clear recovery in US Bitcoin ETFs in September. These products recorded nine consecutive sessions of inflows from September 17 to 29, totaling $3.075 billion.
It should be noted that the week of September 21-25 is worth $2.386 billion. However, the series ended on September 30 with $148.7 million in outflows, precisely the day Citi dated its note. Then, ETFs returned to a positive balance of $102.7 million on 1er october.
Citi estimated in July that $100 million in inflows would lead to a nearly 0.53% daily increase in bitcoin. When applied mechanically to the $3.075 billion collected in nine sessions, this sensitivity would correspond to a theoretical effect close to 16.3%.
However, such a calculation does not constitute a reliable projection. It therefore assumes a constant relationship while the price also depends on derivative markets, liquidity, the dollar and US rates. Thus, it mainly reveals why Citi gives so much importance to ETFs in its models.
The blocking of the Clarity Act does not close the regulatory file
The banking institution also includes American regulations in its scenario. On September 15, the Senate did not definitively reject the substance of the Clarity Act. However, he refused, by 50 votes to 49, to close the preliminary debate and move forward with the examination of the text, because the procedure had required 60 votes.
Citi therefore underlines: “The failure of the Clarity Act reduced the chances of passage of a market structure law, but it prompted regulatory announcements from the SEC that dampened negative sentiment”.
There SEC proposed on August 18 its “Regulating Crypto Assets”. This regulation could create a regime suitable for certain fundraising in the crypto sector. For its part, on September 17 the CFTC sent to the OIRA a project entitled “Regulation Crypto Asset Transactions and Regulation Crypto Asset Markets”still under review.
These approaches remain regulatory proposals. They do not yet replace the national legislative framework that the Clarity Act was intended to establish.
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