United States–China: Trump and Xi will meet in Washington

Scheduled for September 24 in Washington, the Trump-Xi summit must deal with customs duties, artificial intelligence and sensitive technologies. This meeting would extend trade detente, however many Chinese commitments remain contested by the United States.

A meeting under pressure at the White House

This Thursday at the White House, Donald Trump is due to receive Xi Jinping. Indeed, this will be the first meeting in the United States since 2017. The discussions will continue on Friday.

The two heads of state had already met last May in Beijing. During this visit, they attempted to stabilize a relationship marked by customs duties, technological restrictions and tensions over critical raw materials. The current trade truce is due to expire on November 10.

Thus, multiple issues should determine the outcome of this summit:

• The duration of the next customs holiday;
• A possible reduction in prices on non-strategic products;
• Chinese restrictions on rare earths;
• The security of artificial intelligence systems;
• American controls on advanced technologies;
• Commercial commitments still not respected.

Beijing would like to extend the appeasement until the end of Donald Trump’s mandate. However, Washington would prefer an extension limited to six months in order to maintain a means of pressure. No duration has yet been publicly agreed.

Chinese restrictions on the export of critical minerals and rare earths hover above the meeting. Thus, the supplies of several American and foreign companies have been disrupted by these limitations.

Artificial intelligence becomes a diplomatic subject

Artificial intelligence was added to the trade agenda during preparatory discussions held in New York. Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, proposed to Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng an alert mechanism on AI incidents capable of threatening national security.

The system could aim to improve transparency between the two leading world powers in this sector. It would concern accidents triggered by advanced models, automated cyberattacks or uses of AI which present a major military risk.

Scott Bessent at the end of the talks noted : “moving from opacity to more transparency between the two leading global AI powers is very important”. However, China’s official response to this proposal remains unknown.

However, US controls on sophisticated AI chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment have not been included in this mechanism. Washington still considers these technologies strategic. China, an influential member of the BRICS bloc, for its part, sees these restrictions as a means of slowing down the development of its industry.

Jamieson Greer, the US Trade Representative, believes despite these disagreements that cooperation remains essential. He therefore emphasizes:

These are the two most powerful countries on the planet, whether in trade or AI.

The immediate objective is therefore not to resolve technological competition. Indeed, negotiators would rather like to create a channel likely to prevent an incident relating to AI from triggering a political or security crisis between Washington and Beijing.

Trump tariff cut remains uncertain

The two powers are working on a “Board of Trade”. This process must identify non-strategic products that would benefit from a reduction in customs duties. Chinese consumer products, energy, agricultural products and some U.S. medical devices are among the candidates.

There is also the possibility of suspending certain taxes to retain only a 7.5% duty on certain goods. However, this option does not represent an official decision. Jamieson Greer did not provide a final list of products or a new scale.

Multiple promises made during the hand meeting also remain unanswered. Beijing had notably committed to increasing its acquisitions of American agricultural products by $17 billion per year and to ordering more than 200 Boeing planes. No progress on these two issues has been announced by American officials.

The European Union will also follow the summit closely ahead of its own talks with China in October. Maroš Šefčovič, the European Commissioner for Trade, is calling for concrete results in order to avoid new retaliatory measures.

The Trump-Xi summit will therefore be judged on two specific elements: the duration of the customs truce and the transformation of announcements into verifiable commitments. A simple maintenance of the status quo could limit the risk of a new escalation, without resolving the structural differences between the two powers.