According to Jurrien Timmer, director of global macroeconomics at Fidelity, the bitcoin bull cycle could restart for four years. His arguments are based on the resistance of BTC above $60,000 and the improvement in its performance against gold.
In brief
- Bitcoin returns to $80,000 and revives the scenario of a new bullish cycle.
- Jurrien Timmer relies on the resistance of BTC above $60,000 and its performance against gold.
- The 50-week moving average is a major technical signal to confirm the recovery.
- The threshold of $82,000 could determine the continuation of the movement towards $90,000.
- The macroeconomic environment could increase interest in scarce assets like bitcoin and gold.
Bitcoin’s bullish cycle relies on two signals
Bitcoin increased by almost 6% last Friday and returned to the $80,000 threshold. This increase accompanied the drop in oil prices below $100, which temporarily eased fears of a new inflationary surge.
According to Jurrien Timmer, this scenario comes after about a year of consolidation above the $60,000 zone. This duration could correspond to that of a ” winter “ classic of bitcoin.
Its analysis is essentially based on the following elements:
- Bitcoin has preserved the $60,000 zone for almost a year;
- This period corresponds to the typical duration of a major bear market;
- The statistical score comparing bitcoin to gold has become positive again;
- Previous reversals of this indicator have often accompanied a low point.
Timmer in his publication dedicated to markets states:
This is the usual length of a Bitcoin winter, about a year. So I feel like a new four-year bull cycle has begun.
The term “four-year cycle” refers to the historical pattern associated with bitcoin halvings. These events halve the reward paid to mining companies. They usually preceded a bullish stage, then a peak and a correction. However, such statistical regularity does not guarantee that the next cycle could follow a similar schedule.
The 50-week average must confirm the recovery
Bitcoin has also returned above its 50-week moving average. This is why observers use this indicator to distinguish a simple rebound from a more lasting change in trend. A weekly close above this line would consolidate the scenario put forward by Timmer.
This threshold had already been identified by Galaxi Research as a determining level. In 11 of the 13 previous crossings observed at the end of closed bear markets, the low point of the cycle had already been recorded. However, a first attempt failed at the beginning of September.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, estimated : “Bitcoin looks robust above the 50-week moving average. The movement seems real ». He considers the current movement more solid.
The $82,000 area now represents the next expected confirmation. It is equivalent to the peak reached in May. A sustainable crossing would open the way towards $90,000, while a further rejection could leave BTC in its consolidation phase.
An upward cycle supported by macroeconomics
Timmer also inserts his analysis into an environment marked by a sustainably higher cost of capital. Thus, bond yields weigh more heavily on highly indebted countries and increase their financing costs.
According to him, governments would respond with a form of financial repression. This policy mainly consists of keeping real rates under pressure or mobilizing monetary creation in order to reduce the debt burden.
This environment would support demand for scarce assets. Bitcoin has a supply capped at 21 million units, while gold retains its historic status as a store of value. From then on, the correlation between the two assets has just become positive again.
However, this relationship is not permanent. Bitcoin was moving in April more with stocks than with safe havens during episodes of tension. An increase in real rates or a renewed risk aversion would therefore weigh on its price.
Bitcoin bull cycle remains a scenario
Options markets remain more cautious than Timmer. Thus, traders could assign almost a 35% chance of BTC returning above $90,000 by December. The possibility of exceeding $100,000 could drop to 18%.
A return towards 71,000 dollars would remain probable in the event of failure below 82,000 dollars. This level is equivalent to both the 200-day moving average and the realized price of short-term holders. A rupture in this zone could weaken the thesis of an automatic restart.
The end of “bitcoin winter” therefore remains a market interpretation, and not an established fact. A sustainable close above $82,000, followed by higher institutional volumes and flows, could provide stronger confirmation.
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