After a gain of 24% in two weeks, BTC interrupted its progression and is currently stagnating around $77,000. According to CryptoQuant, the momentum remains bullish, however its confirmation depends on a precise threshold: $81,700, the level of the 365-day moving average. However, before achieving this, the market must still absorb a significant concentration of supply. And beyond that, two new resistances already await bitcoin at 83,600 and 88,700 dollars.
In brief
- Bitcoin increased by 24% in two weeks, before seeing its rebound run out of steam around $77,000.
- A first resistance is between 77,100 and 80,200 dollars, an area marked by significant selling by long-term holders.
- The threshold of $81,700 is decisive: according to CryptoQuant, crossing it could confirm a new bull market.
- Two other resistances await Bitcoin at $83,600 and $88,700, with a risk of profit taking.
- In the event of a pullback, supports are around $70,000, then between $62,000 and $65,000.
A significant sales zone weighs on the progress of bitcoin
Bitcoin’s rebound encounters a first resistance zone between $77,100 and $80,200. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, explains the situation: “the trend remains constructive, but a wall of resistance stands in its way”. This barrier equates to an area where long-term holders have surrendered up to 539,000 BTC over a one-month period during this year.
Such a concentration of transfers provides resistance with an on-chain dimension. Moreno la describe as “the closest and largest on-chain supply resistance above the current price”. Bitcoin must therefore absorb this supply before extending its movement, following a rebound of 24% in two weeks. The immediate questions relate less to the scale of the rebound already made than to the market’s capacity to overcome this concentration of BTC capable of weighing on prices.
At this level, the main benchmarks offered by CryptoQuant focus on three pieces of data:
- 24% rise in bitcoin in two weeks before the movement petered out;
- 77100 to 80200 dollars, the supply resistance zone identified above the price;
- 539,000 BTC, the maximum volume sold by long-term holders over a thirty-day period this year in this zone.
The threshold of 81,700 dollars as confirmation of a new bullish cycle
The level that CryptoQuant considers decisive, $81,700, is above this first zone. Currently, it is equivalent to the 365-day moving average of bitcoin and represents, according to Moreno, the first major technical resistance. The analyst recalls that BTC bull markets historically began “officially” whenever the price closed above this average.
Thus, a clear break of $81,700 would confirm a new bull market, according to CryptoQuant’s analysis. This alternative presented is more prudent. Without a clear crossing, bitcoin would continue to progress within a range. The threshold is therefore not a promise of increase, but as a confirmation condition. Such a distinction qualifies the reading of a market which remains constructive even though the technical signal sought has not yet been obtained.
Beyond $81,700, other resistances remain to be overcome
The road would remain congested, even in the event of a break. New resistance is located at $83,600 according to CryptoQuant. It comes from “3x Metcalfe band”a model that determines the value of bitcoin from network activity, basically active addresses. For Moreno, these bands marked significant levels during previous cycles. The 3x band was around $138,000 when bitcoin made its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025. As for the 2x band, it was close to the price when BTC touched $100,000 for the first time in December 2024.
Additional selling pressure would appear around $88,700, the upper limit of the price model produced by CryptoQuant traders, which follows their average acquisition price. Moreno also points out:
The upper bound marks the area where traders’ profit-taking has historically occurred.
If the market moves in the opposite direction, the analyst identified a first support around $70,000, corresponding to the 200-day moving average, then an area between $62,000 and $65,000, where long-term holders have acquired nearly 476,000 BTC this year.
Thus, the configuration described by CryptoQuant remains favorable regardless of the recovery being taken for granted. Moreno concludes : “the overall picture remains bullish, bitcoin must simply absorb the supply above it and cross its valuation ceilings before a new leg of increase can develop”.
Between the successive resistances and the accumulation zones located lower, 81,700 dollars now appears to be the level around which the confirmation of the bullish scenario plays out.
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