Can Bitcoin really reach $400,000 by 2030?

For Brian Armstrong, the boss of Coinbase, bitcoin at $400,000 by 2030 remains a reasonable objective. In order to reach it from its current price, however, BTC would have to multiply by more than five.

Bitcoin expected to gain over 400% by 2030

During an interview with CNBC on September 10, Brian Armstrong reaffirmed his projection. Asked about the possibility of seeing bitcoin approach $400,000 before 2030, he replied that he still considered this target to be realistic.

Currently, BTC is trading around $77,000. It still remains nearly 39% below its record of $126,198 reached in October 2025.

Numerous data allow us to measure the extent of the forecast:

• Bitcoin is expected to rise approximately 420% from $77,000;
• Its price should be multiplied by almost 5.2;
• The target would exceed the October 2025 record by 217%;
• Its capitalization would approach 8,000 billion dollars with 20 million BTC in circulation.

Brian Armstrong in theinterview broadcast by CNBC pointed out: “I think this is a reasonable objective by 2030”. Any such statement constitutes a personal opinion and not an official projection by Coinbase.

The manager did not detail a capitalization model capable of precisely justifying the $400,000. This calculation assumes above all that institutional and individual demand will be able to continue to evolve more quickly than the available supply.

Brian Armstrong believes the floor has already passed

First, the Coinbase boss’s optimism is based on the historical cycles of bitcoin. These usually last about four years and alternate between a phase of euphoria, a correction, then a recovery before the next reduction in the reward for mining specialists.

He therefore asserts: “I personally think that we have already seen the bottom of bitcoin during this cycle”. BTC had fallen to $57,717 on the 1st^er July before returning to around $79,000 in September, according to information gathered.

Also, Armstrong specifies that bearish periods generally last about a year. Precisely, the market has just passed this phase since its peak in October 2025. However, the low number of closed cycles prevents it from being a reliable statistical rule.

The next halving, expected around April 2028, also supports his forecast. This event will halve the quantity of new bitcoins allocated to mining companies. Armstrong therefore expects investors to anticipate this reduction in supply over the next two years.

American regulations would also play a role. Thus, the manager mainly monitors the CLARITY Act and future rules applicable to this sector. Legal clarification would facilitate the arrival of new capital, while a political failure could delay this scenario.

BTC must first regain $81,500

Before considering $400,000, bitcoin must confirm its exit from the bear market. Its 50-week moving average was around $81,473 at the start of this month. The price had not yet managed to close sustainably above this level.

In four of the five previous bear markets, exceeding this average confirmed that the bottom had already been reached. A weekly closure above this threshold would therefore consolidate Brian Armstrong’s analysis, according to a Galaxy Research study.

A first positive signal is offered by the rebound in August. During this month, bitcoin gained 25.4%, while US ETFs collected $3.4 billion. Part of this development, however, came from the repurchase of short positions and acquisitions relating to momentum. Such flows can disappear quickly.

The halving effect could also diminish as ETFs and corporate treasuries become more important. Thus, interest rates, global liquidity and regulatory decisions will then be able to weigh more on the market.

The levels of 81,500 dollars then 126,198 dollars therefore represent the first verifiable steps. Without their lasting crossing, bitcoin at $400,000 will remain a long-term scenario rather than a confirmed trajectory.