Bitcoin has just recorded a technical change that Bitfinex had been waiting for several days. According to the exchange, the weekly BTC Super Trend has become bullish again for the first time since the start of the downtrend. The signal comes after the powerful rebound in August, which brought the price from the $63,000 area to over $80,000.
In brief
- Bitcoin’s weekly Super Trend has just shifted into bullish territory according to Bitfinex.
- On September 1, the indicator still remained bearish with a line located around $79,600.
- The signal confirms a trend, but does not guarantee a further increase in price.
Bitcoin finally crosses the threshold expected by the Super Trend
The change did not happen suddenly. On September 1, Bitfinex was still observing a bearish weekly Super Trend with a line around $79,600. Bitcoin was then moving within $1,000 of this threshold. A few days later, closing above the line caused the indicator to flip.
This development comes as Bitcoin remains facing significant resistance around $82,000. On September 6, BTC was still trading around $80,000 after failing to maintain its passage above this zone.
The Super Trend works with volatility, measured in particular using the Average True Range, or ATR. When its line remains above the price, the trend is considered bearish. When it goes below the price, the indicator instead classifies the trend as bullish.
Bitfinex generally uses an ATR period of 10 and a multiplier of 3 as common settings. The indicator therefore reacts less quickly than a simple daily movement. The weekly changeover actually took several days.
The weekly signal comes after that of the daily chart
The daily chart had moved ahead. In its September 3 analysis, Bitfinex indicated that the daily Super Trend was already bullish. Its line was then around $72,279, while Bitcoin was moving near $78,875. On the weekly chart, confirmation was still missing.
This difference comes from the functioning of the indicator itself. A daily candle reacts faster to a price change than a weekly candle. The daily signal can therefore appear several days before the underlying trend changes in turn.
In the meantime, the market continued to grow. Bitcoin surpassed $82,000 on September 4 before returning to around $79,000. We were already seeing this loss of momentum in the short term despite several still favorable indicators.
This is where reading becomes more interesting. The weekly Super Trend has turned bullish while some short-term indicators are already showing a slowdown. The two pieces of information are not contradictory: one measures a longer trend, the others react more to the last sessions.
A bullish signal does not guarantee a further rise in Bitcoin
Bitfinex presents the Super Trend as a trend following indicator, not as a tool capable of predicting the next bitcoin price.
It can also produce false signals when the market moves within a narrow range. The exchange itself recommends comparing it to the price structure, supports and resistances as well as other indicators such as the RSI, the MACD or moving averages.
The $82,000 zone thus remains important. The market has already tried to cross it before retreating. Even higher, CryptoQuant had identified $83,000 as an important level to confirm a broader shift in market regime.
The two methods are different. CryptoQuant relies in particular on demand data and on-chain indicators, while the Super Trend depends on price and volatility. Their current proximity nevertheless provides an additional benchmark. For Bitcoin, the change is therefore real on the weekly chart: the indicator that Bitfinex was still monitoring below $79,600 has flipped. We will now have to see how long it will stay below the price. It is this, more than a simple change to green, which will give weight to the signal.
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