Bitcoin has just briefly exceeded $82,000. It thus crosses its 50-week moving average. This threshold accompanied the end of four of the five previous comparable bear markets. However, the signal remains incomplete, because it must be attested by a weekly end. A failure below the $81,000 to $86,000 zone would place the $71,800 and $62,000 supports back at the center of trade.
In brief
- Bitcoin briefly exceeded $82,000, touching its 50-week moving average.
- A weekly close above $81,800 would strengthen the reversal signal.
- The $83,000-$86,000 zone is the main obstacle to the continued rebound.
- A sustainable crossing of resistance could open the way towards 90,000 then 98,000 dollars.
- A return below key supports would revive the risk of a decline towards 71,800 then 62,000 dollars.
Four technical levels will decide between buyers and sellers
Bitcoin rose around $80,800 on September 4, after an intraday peak near $82,000. It therefore remains in contact with the 50-week moving average, valued at nearly $81,800 by Galaxy Research.
The rest of the movement will be determined by certain main levels:
- A weekly close above $81,800 would confirm the crossing;
- The area between $83,000 and $86,000 concentrates a large quantity of bitcoins likely to be sold;
- A sustainable progression would open the way towards 90,000, then 98,000 dollars;
- A break of supports located between $76,000 and $78,000 would expose $71,800, then $62,000 to $65,000.
The 50-week moving average confirmed four out of five reversals
Historically, the 50-week moving average serves as a price cap during bitcoin bear markets. According to a study published by Galaxy Researchfour of the five comparable periods ended with the first successful weekly close above this line.
The movement observed above 82,000 dollars therefore represents a favorable signal. However, this is not yet a confirmation. The price must remain above average until the close of the week. A simple intraday foray does not meet the criterion used in the study.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, admitted:
It is not a perfect low point indicator nor a perfect long term support, but it comes very close.
However, the precedent of 2021-2022 calls for caution. Bitcoin had twice resumed its 50-week moving average, in December 2021 and in March 2022. These crossings only lasted one to two weeks before a new correction. The price had finally reached a low point near $15,758 in November 2022.
The start of the current cycle dates back to the October 2025 high, set at over $126,000. Then, bitcoin fell to nearly $58,500 on June 30, 2026, a fall of 53.1%. The increase above $80,000 therefore constitutes an evolution of around 40% since this floor.
Sellers wait for bitcoin between $83,000 and $86,000
Above the moving average is only the first hurdle. According to data provided by Glassnodemultiple long-term holders bought their bitcoins between $83,000 and $86,000.
Such concentration creates a potential sales area. Nearly 68% of bitcoin’s supply is now in profit, compared to 65% during a comparable test in May. A new rebound would therefore allow many investors to sell without loss.
However, the August surge was driven by spot acquisitions and nearly $2.8 billion in inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs. The fall in open interest on futures contracts and the maintenance of moderate funding rates indicate that the movement does not come exclusively from speculative leveraged positions.
However, this apparent demand remains irregular. It briefly turned negative again earlier this month, indicating that new acquisitions do not always compensate for bitcoins being put back into circulation.
The $62,000 scenario depends on two supports
A close above $81,800, followed by a lasting crossing of $86,000, would consolidate the scenario of an end to the bear market. The next resistances would be located around $90,000, then close to the 2026 high at $98,000.
On the other hand, a return below $76,000 could weaken the recovery. Therefore, technical analysis locates another major support at $71,781. Its breakdown could increase the risk of a fall towards $62,677, then towards the annual low near $57,800.
The next weekly close will therefore be decisive. It will make it possible to distinguish a real change in trend from a temporary rebound comparable to the false signals of 2021-2022.
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