Bitcoin and gold are moving in the same direction more and more often. Their 90-day correlation reached its highest level since 2020, according to Bitwise. This rapprochement comes as investors turn away from long-dated US bonds, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield towards 4.8%.
In brief
- The 90-day correlation between bitcoin and gold has reached a high not seen since 2020, according to Bitwise. Grayscale also saw it surpass 50%, after a near-zero start to the year.
- The 30-day correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 fell near zero during the August rally, according to Glassnode.
- Bitcoin has moved inversely to the US dollar over 90 days. Spot ETFs, for their part, recorded up to $290 million in daily inflows on average at the peak of the movement.
Reconciliation with gold, doubts about the stock market drop
To better understand this movement, our analysis of inter-market correlations looks at the links between bitcoin and the main financial markets. The 90-day bitcoin-gold correlation climbed during the last wave of bond sales, as long-term yields rose and the Treasury, led by Scott Bessent, stepped up its purchases of long securities.
For Bitwise, investors distinguish bitcoin less and less from gold. According to André Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise, bitcoin would even begin to behave like an amplified version of gold.
A note from Zachary Pandl published on August 27 by Grayscale Research confirms the trend: the bitcoin/gold correlation now exceeds 50%, compared to an almost zero level at the start of 2026, while that between bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 has fallen from around 60% to 33%.
Caution comes from on-chain data. In its report “The Week On-Chain Week 35 2026,” Glassnode notes that the 30-day bitcoin/S&P 500 correlation fell near zero during the August rally.
However, this type of sudden decorrelation, during massive sales of sovereign bonds, has historically proven to be temporary, reflecting local exhaustion rather than a structural shift. The post-short-squeeze rally stalled below $83,000-$86,000, bottom between $62,000-$65,000.
A third reading, carried by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, qualifies the picture: over six months, bitcoin has shown a lower correlation to American stocks than gold, small caps, emerging markets or Treasuries. Its historical correlation with stocks remains stable, around 0.40, it is gold and Treasuries which have moved closer to stocks, with no change in narrative on the bitcoin side.
What the on-chain numbers and Bitcoin ETF flows say
Our on-chain analysis of the bitcoin cycle places $83,000-86,000 as the technical ceiling, and $62,000-65,000 as a bearish reference as long as no breakout is confirmed. Spot ETF flows, which peaked at $290 million per day at the height of the movement, will serve as a complementary indicator to distinguish real underlying demand from a simple rebound.
The next signal to watch: will the 30-day bitcoin/S&P 500 correlation remain near zero, or will it return there quickly? Between Bitwise’s reading and Glassnode’s warning, the answer will emerge in the next bond sessions.
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