While bitcoin struggles to find a clear direction, VanEck tries to date the end of the correction. The asset manager relies on on-chain data and market structure to measure the extent of the purge, particularly among long-term holders. Above all, his analysis draws a scenario for the future. An accumulation phase whose duration could provide valuable clues about the next market turnaround. To what extent do these models really allow us to anticipate the awakening of bitcoin?
In brief
- Bitcoin is stuck around $64,500, down 48% from its October 2025 high ($126,300).
- Long-term holders liquidated 356,000 BTC in 30 days, pushing their supply share below 60%.
- 8 of the 12 surrender signals tracked by VanEck are activated simultaneously on August 18, 2026.
- Historical cycles place the end of the correction and the absolute low point between September and November 2026.
- While the short-term rebound remains historically slow, VanEck maintains his $180,000 target for Bitcoin.
Massive sale of 356,000 bitcoins shakes historical holders
In their latest report “Bitcoin Chaincheck” from mid-August 2026, Matthew Sigel, head of crypto research at VanEck, and senior analyst Patrick Bush provide an uncompromising overview. With the price of bitcoin trading around $64,500 at the time of writing, the queen of cryptos is down 48% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,300.
The central element of this publication lies in the behavior of long-term holders. These wallets, which have held their coins for more than 155 days, have liquidated no less than 356,000 BTC in just 30 days. Thus, this massive selling movement caused their share in the total circulating supply to fall below the symbolic threshold of 60%, although they still hold a substantial quantity estimated at 11.84 million BTC.
To explain this phenomenon, VanEck analysts emphasize that the market is going through what looks like a crypto price capitulation and could be near or currently in an accumulation phase. The report is based on a dashboard with 12 distinct capitulation indicators, combining on-chain data and market indicators that historically cluster near cycle lows.
As of August 18, exactly 8 of these 12 signals had been activated simultaneously. Even more revealing of the scale of the purge, all 12 indicators have touched the capitulation zone at one time or another over the last three months, proving that capitulation is not limited to a marginal sector, but affects the entire ecosystem.
In order to measure the scope of this liquidity shock, the main conclusions of the report revolve around three numerical findings:
- The simultaneous activation of 8 capitulation signals out of 12 on August 18, 2026;
- The liquidation of 356,000 BTC by long-term holders in the space of a month;
- The decline in the share of historical investors below the threshold of 60% of the total circulating supply.
Between historical models and accumulation windows, the horizon is clearing for the fall
This phase of capitulation fits into a very precise temporality that VanEck researchers have put into perspective with the history of the market. The current correction has been going on for about 11 months, if we take the October 2025 peak as a starting point. Looking at the three previous crypto bear markets, the firm calculated an average duration of 12.7 months between the peak and the absolute low point.
If the historical dynamics were to repeat themselves identically, the major inflection point of the market should be located in a narrow window between September and November 2026. It is during this period of time that the capitulation phase would give way to a phase of sustainable accumulation.
However, VanEck wishes to provide an essential nuance and warns against hasty interpretations. The authors point out that historical periods where 8 to 12 of these signals flashed together did not necessarily generate an immediate rebound.
In fact, the average returns recorded at 90 days and 180 days after these signals were lower than bitcoin’s typical performance, demonstrating that these metrics are by no means an accurate short-term timing tool. Conversely, over a 12-month horizon, buying in these capitulation zones has historically outperformed the average, although the team points out that the statistical sample remains limited due to the young history of the market.
The course towards $180,000 for bitcoin
Despite this methodological prudence over short horizons, the investment company’s fundamental position does not weaken in the face of volatility. Matthew Sigel firmly maintains his long-term price target of $180,000 for bitcoin.
The firm continues to emphasize the structural resilience of the asset, even in a complex macroeconomic environment where overall liquidity conditions are experiencing severe adjustments. This duality between short-term tactical rigor and long-term strategic confidence perfectly sums up the posture adopted by the asset manager since the start of the year.
In further reflection on the implications of these data, it is appropriate to approach these perspectives with a sharp and measured eye. On the one hand, the alignment of signals of capitulation and the purge suffered by historical holders prepare the ground for a cleansing of the market, essential to the construction of a solid base.
On the other hand, the weak short-term statistical performance reminds us that the bottom of a cycle often takes the form of a long horizontal plateau rather than a V-shaped rebound. The informed investor will therefore have to arbitrate between the patience required to cross the critical window of autumn 2026 and the discipline necessary to position oneself for the long-term cycle theorized by institutions, materialized by the massive accumulation of whales.
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