Bitcoin: Glassnode detects a slowdown in sellers around $64,000

Since the beginning of August, the market has been moving in a narrow zone, without direction. Bitcoin hovers between $63,500 and $65,000 as data points to slowing sales. Glassnode is now seeing signs of sellers running out of steam, a phenomenon often associated with the latter stages of a correction. However, the company remains cautious and does not yet confirm the formation of a lasting low. Between price stability and institutional demand still present, the market is now waiting for a clearer signal.

Bitcoin shows signs of running out of steam

Glassnode currently describes a “compressed” market rather than one in capitulation. According to his analysis, sellers appear to be gradually losing their ability to push prices lower. This situation appears while the price of bitcoin remains locked in a range between $63,500 and $65,000. Classes are therefore evolving in a reduced space, with little direction since the start of the month.

On his part, Bitfinex data provide an additional element. According to its research department, 54.6% of the circulating supply is in profit. This level suggests that the average holder is close to equilibrium. Historically, this configuration has accompanied the end of corrections more than their beginning, without guaranteeing an immediate turnaround.

For Glassnode, current conditions remain fragile. Prices react strongly to market movements, while sellers show less strength. On-chain analysis therefore provides a signal of fatigue, but not confirmation of a change in trend.

Institutional demand maintains buying pressure

The behavior of spot bitcoin ETFs constitutes another element in this consolidation phase. Funds recorded an outflow of $144.67 millionafter five consecutive days of entries. This output therefore contrasts with the previous dynamic. It is not enough to show that institutional demand has disappeared.

At the same time, bitcoin retained its price zone despite several significant sell-offs. The transfers attributed to certain whales and to Strategy did not cause an immediate break. This resistance complements Glassnode’s signals. Above all, it shows that buyers are still responding to part of the offer.

Jasper De Maere, OTC trader at Wintermute, however, believed that ETF purchases do not have a direct impact on the price of BTC and linked a possible recovery to crossing $65,000:

ETF purchases certainly contributed to the rise of Bitcoin, but did not have a significant impact on its price. Marginal buyers in the spot market are therefore not true bull investors. Bitcoin will thus have to cross the $65,000 mark in the short term to consolidate its recovery.

Source : Binance Square

According to this reading, bitcoin must exceed this threshold to strengthen the bullish scenario. Until this condition occurs, seller burnout remains an indicator, rather than an inflection point. The market therefore maintains a waiting structure.

The $65,000 at the center of the next move

The next step will depend on the reaction of buyers around $65,000. A clear break would reinforce the hypothesis of a recovery mentioned by Wintermute. Conversely, a new rejection could show that the decline retains pressure capacity. In this context, buyers must still confirm their ability to regain control.

A previous signal from Glassnode also allows us to place this situation in a broader perspective. The previous year, the gradual reduction in losses had preceded a recovery. However, several months were necessary before confirmation of the signal provided by the on-chain data. The parallel therefore remains imperfect, in particular because current price levels are around $10,000 lower.

This comparison highlights an important limitation of current indicators. Seller exhaustion can accompany a stabilization without immediately causing a rise. It will therefore still be necessary to overcome the identified resistance in the long term. Glassnode estimates that sellers active at the end of July and beginning of August have largely consumed their potential, but does not yet confirm a bottom.

Two scenarios thus remain open. A break above $65,000 could validate the momentum buyers are looking for. A failure against this zone could prolong the consolidation or open the way to a retest lower. The next development will therefore depend as much on the behavior of prices as on the persistence of the signals observed on the chain.

The BTC market is thus entering a phase where stability is no longer enough to confirm a reversal. The next moves around $65,000 will gauge demand and sellers’ return. As long as this resistance holds, the data indicates a possible lull, but not yet a lasting bottom.