In my analysis last week, I warned that Bitcoin’s bullish move would only be valid if the price managed to consolidate above daily resistance and confirm a breakout above the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA). I also warned investors not to rely too much on ETF flows, because although purchases continued daily, their volume was gradually decreasing. I also pointed out that a rapid loss of this area would turn the move into a false breakout. Today, this scenario is starting to materialize. Bitcoin’s inability to sustain above the breakout level reinforces my bearish macro view and increases the likelihood of a correction to lower liquidity zones.
If we look at Bitcoin, we can see that it is currently trading between $66,000 and $60,000, with the $66,000 area acting as resistance. We have tested this level several times, although it previously served as support around the $65,000 region.
From a technical and psychological perspective, one of the biggest mistakes investors make is trying to predict Bitcoin’s exact bottom. Each market cycle brings countless predictions placing the bottom at a specific price, but the reality is that no one can accurately determine where a correction will end. Rather than focusing on a single level, I think it is much more effective to identify a high probability accumulation area.
As I mentioned when Bitcoin was trading around $120,000, my expectation was that the market would eventually move back towards the $60,000 zone, and my approach remains exactly the same. Could Bitcoin Drop to $45,000–50,000? Absolutely. Can anyone say this with 100% certainty? No.
This is why I believe any DCA (dollar average cost) purchase below $65,000 represents an attractive opportunity.
My strategy is not to buy the exact bottom of the market, but to gradually build a strong position through staggered purchases in a value area. The goal is not to obtain the perfect entry price, but to secure a competitive average cost to participate in the next bull cycle without depending on a single transaction. Historically, this approach has proven to be much more consistent than waiting indefinitely for the absolute bottom, which in many cases never arrives.
From a macro point of view, my vision remains unchanged compared to my previous analyses: the general trend is still bearish. Any bullish impulse observed should currently be seen as a movement intended to capture liquidity rather than the start of a lasting uptrend.
For spot portfolios, I continue to favor an accumulation strategy based on discipline, appropriate risk management and a long-term investment view, preparing positions for the next bull cycle. Historically, buying during periods when the market confirms a bear market and selling once the next up cycle is established has proven to be a very profitable strategy.
Bitcoin is now heading towards its key support at $60,000. If this level does not hold, I expect the market to revisit the $58,000 area, which represents the next important liquidity area to watch.
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