The CLARITY Act, a flagship bill to regulate cryptos in the United States, is on the verge of failure. With 4 days to convince the Senate, its adoption has only a 30% chance of succeeding. Between political blockages and economic issues, the future of Bitcoin and altcoins is now being decided.
In brief
- Emergency in the Senate: 4 days to adopt the CLARITY Act, with only a 30% chance of success.
- Political blockages: Democrats and Republicans divided on ethics and crypto regulation.
- Challenge for Bitcoin: Adoption could boost cryptos, failure plunging them into uncertainty.
US Senate has 4 days to save CLARITY Act, odds drop to 30%
The CLARITY Act, this long-awaited bill to clarify crypto regulation in the United States, sees its chances of adoption drop to 30%, according to Galaxy Digital. The reason? A severe lack of votes in the Senate. Indeed, with only 4 days before the summer break, the Republicans, who control 53 seats, are struggling to gather the 60 votes necessary to avoid a filibuster.
The Democrats, led by Elizabeth Warren, strongly criticize the text, in particular on the ethical provisions (entrusted to the Department of Justice) and the sunset clause in 2029. Meanwhile, Mitch McConnell, Republican leader, remains absent since his hospitalization, further reducing the chances of success. Alex Thorn, director of research at Galaxy, is clear:
The time for incremental negotiations is over. It takes a last minute effort.
If the Senate does not launch the process by July 30the project will be postponed until September, where it will have to compete with the federal budget and the midterm elections. Failure would mean another year of legal uncertainty for the US crypto industry.
Bitcoin and CLARITY Act: why this law could change everything (or nothing at all)
Bitcoin, often considered a commodity by the CFTC, could benefit indirectly from the CLARITY Act, even if the text does not explicitly mention it. Indeed, by clarifying the roles of the SEC and the CFTC, this law could reduce the risks of arbitrary prosecutions against platforms like Coinbase or Kraken, which list BTC. However, if the project fails, bitcoin could face increased regulatory pressure.
Without a clear framework, the SEC could therefore continue to target exchanges under the pretext of selling unregistered securities, as it did with Ripple. Conversely, if the CLARITY Act passes, bitcoin could attract more institutional capital, particularly via spot ETFs. Clear regulation would also strengthen the legitimacy of BTC as a digital store of value, compared to competitors such as gold or the dollar.
The CLARITY Act is at a turning point. Its failure would plunge cryptos into uncertainty, while its adoption could revolutionize the market! As Charles Schwab thinks, who sees it as a historical catalyst. But with 4 days to convince, one question remains: will senators dare to save the United States’ crypto future?
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