Does Bitcoin follow an immutable rhythm? A viral theory claims that its price is locked in cycles of 1,064 days of increase followed by 364 days of decline, with a key date: October 9, 2026. Will BTC escape its dire fate?
In brief
- One theory states that Bitcoin follows cycles of 1,064 days up and 364 days down, with a tipping point predicted on October 9, 2026.
- This model is based on historical observations, but ignores external factors (regulations, economic crises).
- Open debate: coincidence, confirmation bias or immutable law of crypto markets?
The theory of bitcoin cycles: a mathematical model that defies chance
For years, a theory has intrigued crypto investors. Bitcoin would follow a repetitive and predictable cycle, alternating between rising phases (1,064 days) and falling phases (364 days). According to this model, each cycle ends with a specific tipping point, such as October 9, 2026… Date on which a new bearish phase would begin. Proponents of this theory point out that this pattern has been repeated without exception since 2015. Indeed, the graphs show green (rising) and red (decreasing) zones, with disconcerting regularity.
For them, this is not a prediction, but a mathematical observation based on the history of BTC. However, this approach raises doubts. Financial markets are influenced by external factors (regulations, adoption, economic crises) which can easily disrupt this model. Additionally, bitcoin remains a speculative and volatile asset, where past cycles do not guarantee future results. So, coincidence?
BTC: a cyclical asset or a mirror of market psychology?
Bitcoin is often compared to a cyclical asset like gold or technology stocks. But unlike the latter, its price is extremely sensitive to investor psychology. Halvings, for example, are another well-documented cyclical phenomenon, often correlated with bitcoin bull runs. However, this event has economic foundations (increased scarcity), unlike the theory of 1064 dayswhich is based solely on past observations.
In a market as chaotic as that of crypto, investors look for reassuring patterns and see in these different theories a confirmation bias and above all… a regularity too perfect to be ignored. One thing is certain, if this theory proves true in October 2026, it could strengthen confidence in cyclical models or trigger widespread panic if it fails.
Is bitcoin doomed to repeat its cycles? The theory of October 9, 2026 fascinates, but divides. One thing is certain, markets love stories. And you, do you believe in this planned fall of BTC?
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