Bitcoin: Should we believe in a rebound or fear a new fall?

Bitcoin is returning to the center of discussions after a new phase of weakness in the crypto market. On-chain data shows a possible approach to a low point, but demand remains fragile. Between encouraging valuation signals, contraction of spot purchases and decline of ETFs, the market is still hesitant. The question is therefore simple: is BTC preparing for a lasting rebound or is it risking another brutal decline?

Bitcoin: a possible bottom according to on-chain data

After falling towards $59,000 last week, bitcoin is trading around 9% above its realized price, estimated at $53,600. This indicator represents the aggregated average cost of participants on the blockchain. In previous cycles, it has often served as an important benchmark during bear markets.

For bitcoin, this level therefore attracts the attention of analysts. Historically, declines have often ended close to the realized price, or even slightly below. The case of November 2022 remains special, because BTC had briefly crossed this threshold during the FTX bankruptcy before resuming a more solid trajectory.

So, from a valuation perspective, the market could enter a bottom zone. However, this signal is not enough to confirm a reversal. A price close to historical support can open an accumulation phase, but it does not automatically guarantee a lasting rebound.

Demand too weak to validate the bullish scenario

However, bitcoin still lacks one central element: strong and consistent demand. According to theCryptoQuant analysisthe unfavorable demand on the spot market and on speculative futures contracts does not yet make it possible to confirm a definitive low point. The market therefore remains divided between possible stabilization and risk of rupture.

Total demand, which includes speculative futures markets and the apparent spot market, dropped to -652,000 last week. This is the largest contraction observed since January 2022. This drop shows that buyers remain cautious, even when the price approaches historically sensitive levels.

Additionally, the long-term demand for bitcoin in the spot market has turned negative. It reaches its lowest level since February 2024. This signal complicates the scenario of a rapid recovery, because a bullish reversal often requires a gradual return of sustainable buyers.

ETFs and capitulation remain signals to watch

In the spot ETF market, bitcoin is also under notable pressure. Thirty-day demand growth is at a negative level not seen since the launch of these products in January 2024. This movement suggests that US institutional demand has run out of steam, or even reversed towards net sales.

At the same time, the losses made by bitcoin holders have not yet reached a capitulation level. However, in several market cycles, a peak in losses may indicate that the weakest sellers have already left the market. Its absence suggests that the selling pressure is not completely exhausted.

In this context, BTC finds itself in a decisive zone. A rebound remains possible if total demand stabilizes, if ETF flows pick up and if the market absorbs current losses. Conversely, without improvement in these factors, the current price looks more like a bottom candidate than a confirmed low point.