Bitcoin at -40%: What if panic was the most reliable buying signal in history?
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Since its October 2025 peak at $126,000, Bitcoin has lost more than 40%. The Fear & Greed Index is in extreme fear zone, institutional ETFs are seeing net outflows, and obituaries are flourishing again. However, bitcoindeaths.com has already listed 472 since 2010. They all appear at the same time: exactly this one.

A lone investor calmly walks forward. A crowd of traders flees in the opposite direction as he advances towards a huge, glowing Bitcoin.

In brief

  • As Bitcoin falls more than 40% from its all-time high, predictions of its demise are resurfacing.
  • 472 death declarations against Bitcoin since 2010 have been recorded.
  • Analysis of these obituaries reveals a recurring pattern: They generally appear after market peaks, never at the height of panic.
  • Several historical critics of Bitcoin, including Jamie Dimon and Larry Fink, eventually changed their positions over the years.

Bitcoin “dead” since 2010: the same scenario, again and again

Since its October 2025 peak at $126,198, Bitcoin has lost more than 40%. Institutional demand is declining, macro uncertainty is weighing on risky assets, and traders are torn between a healthy correction and a deep reset. Google searches for the phrase “Bitcoin bear market” reached their highest level in five years in early 2026, surpassing the peaks observed during the 2021 crash and the 2022-2023 bear market. It is precisely in this type of context that bitcoindeaths.com resurfaces, a site that has become a discreet monument to the ecosystem: it lists every declaration of death pronounced against Bitcoin since 2010 – name, exact quote, function, date. The counter reads 472. Analyzing their chronology, a relentless pattern emerges: obituaries almost always appear after a peak, never at the bottom of the market. Like today.

The first dates from October 2010. Bitcoin was worth 11 cents. An anonymous blogger predicted it would pass “from novelty to dead project faster than you can blink”. Since then, the price has increased by almost 700,000. The site also lists repeat offenders. Peter Schiff holds the all-time record with 22 statements made at all price levels — a few dollars, $100, $1,000, $10,000, $100,000. CNBC made its own obituary official in 2018 during a television segment, broadcasting a tombstone-shaped curve as Bitcoin fell to $6,800 from its all-time high of $20,000. 2017 remains the record year: 93 mentions of death, all made just after the peak. THE YouTuber Hasheur recently dedicated an entire video to this archive, highlighting what the meter reveals above all: not a weakness in Bitcoin, but the predictable psychology of bear markets, which repeats itself in every cycle with disturbing regularity.

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Yesterday's gravediggers, today's spectacular converts

The most striking lesson from the site is perhaps this: among the most virulent detractors of Bitcoin is a gallery of personalities who are today among the most involved players in the ecosystem. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, is in the top 5 obituaries for calling Bitcoin a scam, a decentralized Ponzi scheme, and proposing its destruction before the US Congress. Its spectacular capitulation is now documented: JPMorgan is now one of the most active banks in the distribution of digital assets. Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, declared in 2017 that Bitcoin was “an indicator of money laundering”. He has since publicly admitted his mistake, and now acknowledges that Bitcoin is “a legitimate financial instrument” And “digital gold”. Moreover, its IBIT ETF did not become the most profitable product in the entire history of BlackRock.

It is no coincidence that the same institutions that buried Bitcoin are today the ones that include it on their balance sheets. What the bitcoindeaths.com counter documents over 15 years is a well-known cognitive bias: we criticize what falls to consolidate our position, not for a structural reason. Bitcoin's declines also become statistically less violent as the market matures — -93% in 2011, -86% in 2013-2015, -84% in 2017-2018, -77% in 2021-2022. Bitcoin may one day have a real flaw – on quantum, on decentralization – and this will be a legitimate reason to doubt. But the current correction is not one. It resembles, unmistakably, the 472 moments that preceded it.

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