The threat of quantum computing to the security of the Bitcoin network has just taken a concrete and numerical turn. A shocking report published by the analysis firm Glassnode throws a wrench into the pond: 6.04 million bitcoins are today vulnerable to decryption by a quantum computer. This represents 30.2% of the total circulating supply.
In brief
- Glassnode estimates that 30.2% of bitcoins display potential quantum exposure.
- Poor management practices represent the main source of vulnerability.
- No operational quantum attacks currently threaten the Bitcoin network.
6.04 million BTC in the viewfinder
According to Glassnode, 6.04 million BTC are in addresses whose public key is already visible on the Bitcoin blockchain. The remaining 13.99 million BTC does not have this exposure. This equates to 69.8%.
Why is it critical? A sufficiently powerful quantum computer (notably a CRQC) could reconstruct a private key from the only known public key via Shor's algorithm. The attacker would then not need to wait for the owner to move his funds. Bitcoins would be accessible directly, in a dormant state.
THE bitcoins from the Satoshi era constitute the most persistent form of exposure. If they are lost or abandoned, they will never be able to migrate to more secure address structures. They would therefore remain exposed indefinitely.
Glassnode specifies that this analysis predicts neither the date nor even the certainty of a quantum attack against Bitcoin. This is a mapping of existing vulnerabilities.
Two very distinct types of exposure for the Bitcoin network
The first is structural. Some types of addresses reveal the public key by design, regardless of the behavior of their owner. This is the case for old P2PK outputs, used in particular by Satoshi Nakamotoas well as modern Taproot addresses. This category represents 1.92 million BTC, or 9.6% of the total supply.
Operational exposure is the heart of the current problem. It totals 4.12 million BTC, or 20.6% of the supply. It comes from bad practices:
- address reuse;
- partial expenses;
- insufficient custody management.
The study points to a major culprit in this operational exposure: centralized bitcoin trading platforms. Crypto exchanges alone hold 1.66 million bitcoins at risk due to simplified internal management mechanisms that recycle deposit addresses for their clients. This massive concentration of unprotected liquidity in the face of quantum risk indirectly weakens the Bitcoin ecosystem.
In any case, the debate around quantum risk could now accelerate the technical evolution of bitcoin. Future network updates will likely aim to protect funds before quantum computers actually arrive.
Maximize your Tremplin.io experience with our 'Read to Earn' program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
