Bitcoin does not necessarily lack strength. Above all, it lacks a clear signal. According to Glassnode, this signal passes through a simple but extremely useful indicator: the share of bitcoins held by short-term investors still in profit. As long as this gauge remains below 50%, the idea of a lasting rebound remains fragile.
In brief
- Bitcoin is still looking for a confirmation signal.
- Glassnode monitors the return of short-term holders to profits.
- Above 50%, a lasting rebound becomes more credible.
Why does this 50% threshold matter so much?
Less than half of the supply held by short-term holders, i.e. investors who entered less than 155 days ago, is currently in latent gain. For Glassnode, this blockage reflects a still hesitant market. Clearly, BTC can rebound occasionally, but it still lacks the psychological basis necessary to initiate a solid recovery.
The bitcoin market often operates on psychological tipping points. The 50% threshold is one of them. When more than half of short-term holders return to profit, the climate changes. Selling pressure is calming, and the appetite for risk is gradually returning.
Conversely, when this proportion remains below half, a large part of recent entrants keep losing positions. This detail weighs heavily. These investors are often the most sensitive to volatility. They sell faster, cut earlier, and react more to market shocks.
Glassnode emphasizes that this situation generally reflects a still timid demand. This is not necessarily a signal of collapse. It is rather the sign of a market which has not yet regained real confidence. As long as this confidence does not return among new entrants, bitcoin remains vulnerable to incomplete recoveries.
Short-term holders remain the nerve link of the market
In on-chain analysis, short-term holders occupy a special place. They are the ones who often absorb the most brutal variations. They come in during phases of enthusiasm, then test their conviction as soon as the price pulls back. Their behavior therefore gives a fairly clear reading of the immediate health of the market.
When these players are mostly in the green, the atmosphere changes quickly. The market is breathing better. Profit taking still exists, but it is part of a healthier structure. The price can then rest on a more stable base, because new entrants are no longer all stuck below their purchase price.
On the other hand, when many of these holders remain underwater, bitcoin advances with an invisible brake. Each increase becomes suspect. Each bounce attracts relief sales. This mechanism does not prevent one-off progression, but it clearly complicates the construction of a clean and lasting upward trend.
What the market has already shown in the past
The interest in this indicator comes mainly from its history. Glassnode points out that when the short-term holders' share of profits rose above 50% in the past, this often preceded a more credible recovery phase. The market has already reacted in this way during the rebound in the first half of 2025.
By then, the return of profitability among recent entrants had not only improved sentiment. It also served as fuel to relaunch a broader dynamic. Bitcoin then extended its rise to reach new highs. This is therefore not an isolated technical detail. It’s a behavioral pivot.
However, magic reading should be avoided. A move above 50% does not automatically guarantee a price explosion. On the other hand, the absence of this signal makes the recovery much less credible. That's the whole nuance. This indicator does not promise the rally. Above all, it helps to distinguish a real reversal from a simple start.
Can bitcoin bounce back now?
Bitcoin recently attempted to return towards $72,000 after rising 3% over 24 hours. This move shows that the market is trying to rebuild momentum. But for a rebound to become more than a simple episode, we will have to see if the profitability of short-term holders really follows.
This is often the trap of nervous markets. The price of bitcoin rises before the structure is completely repaired. This gives encouraging signals in the short term, then the momentum runs out of steam. Without a clear improvement in the situation of short-term holders, the risk remains that of a technical rebound, not yet that of an established recovery.
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